Why elections in India, the world's largest democracy, are crucial to watch

With the latest speech and the last decade of his rule, Modi's vision for the country has been clear. In January, when he inaugurated an unfinished, but grand Hindu temple at the site where an ancient mosque was demolished by a Hindu mob, Modi's aim to advance his Hindu nationalist party and ideals were evident.

Arguably, the most popular leader in modern Indian history, Modi's Hindu-majority supporters see him as a larger- than- life figure who embodies a "New India," one that is majoritarian domestically and more assertive on the global stage. His approval ratings are what most Western leaders could only dream of. His politics are aimed at consolidating the Hindu vote in a country with a population made up of nearly 80% Hindus. India has the largest youth population in the world. Many of those young people are struggling for jobs, and yet, close watchers of the Indian election note that unemployment, education and social welfare issues remain missing from Modi's discourse. Nearly 200 million Muslims call India their home, making up the third largest population of Muslims in the world. Yet Modi's rule has fostered a resurgence in Hindutva, a nationalistic ideology built on a belief that India should be a Hindu-controlled state. India steps into these elections deeply polarized and divided.

The country of 1.4 billion people has nearly 970 million registered voters. This election will also be the world's most expensive, with political parties projected to spend twice more than the $7 billion spent in the previous election in 2019. Critics of India's Hindu nationalist prime minister argue that democracy itself will be put to test in this election. "There are serious question marks on whether these are really free and fair polls, if one thinks clearly based on all the evidence that is on record," said Sushant Singh, a senior foreign policy expert at the India-based Centre for Policy Research, and a lecturer at Yale University.

"And if a country like India cannot hold free and fair polls, then how does it posit itself as a polar opposite of an autocratic, authoritarian, communist China, which is what the West essentially wants to project," Singh said.

State of democracy, ahead of the elections

India has for long enjoyed a multi-party system, but in the weeks leading up to this election, Modi has expanded his crackdown on the opposition. Indian authorities have arrested New Delhi's sitting chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, a vocal political rival of Modi. The arrests were made on the basis of allegations of money laundering. The Indian National Congress, the principal opposition party which has governed the country for more than 50 of its 77 years of freedom, has accused the Modi administration of freezing its financial assets in the run-up to the elections. Modi's Hindu-right political party - the Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP - has poached candidates from opposition parties, some with law enforcement cases against them. Critics believe the cases are being used as leverage and will be dropped after they join the BJP. Nearly one-third of BJP candidates announced so far are opposition defectors.

READ MORE: What's at stake for India and its allies as polls open in world's largest election

Court orders revealed that Modi's party was the biggest beneficiary of a now-banned financial scheme and has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in anonymous political donations from private companies. India's second highest election official unexpectedly resigned days before poll dates were announced, raising concerns over the pressures being placed on independent institutions. The Modi administration also said that ahead of the elections, it would implement a controversial citizenship law that human rights experts say is discriminatory towards Muslims and had previously triggered nationwide protests in 2019. The law would fast-track naturalization for many members of different religious groups, but fully excluded Muslims. Critics believe the timing of the move was meant to further polarize communities ahead of the elections.

In recent weeks, the Biden administration has expressed concerns over some of these developments, but received strong objections from India which responded by summoning a senior state department official.

"What distinguishes democracies from autocracy is an ability to be self critical to hold leaders accountable for mistakes and for abuses. And if we don't have that, then there is no fundamental difference," said Adrian Shahbaz, Vice President for Research and Analysis, at Freedom House, a Washington based not- for- profit democracy watchdog organization. In the last decade under Modi's rule, India has consistently seen a decline in global democratic ratings. Freedom House downgraded India's status from free to 'partly free' in 2021.

Reporters without Borders' 2023 World Press Freedom Index ranked India as one of the worst countries for press freedom. "The violence against journalists, the politically partisan media and the concentration of media ownership all demonstrate that press freedom is in crisis in 'the world's largest democracy,'" the report authors wrote.

"What we're seeing in India is things like journalists facing lawsuits, administrative investigations, very vile harassment online, as well as surveillance. There's also been increasing restrictions on NGOs and think tanks and tax and financial crime investigations against high profile government critics," Shahbaz said.

"What is the kind of democracy that India wants to be? Is it just going to be an ethnic autocracy or electoral autocracy with elections in between? That's the fundamental question which has been raised by these elections," Singh said.

The India-U.S. relationship

"The single most important country in the world for the United States in the next 35 years will be India." That statement came from a Biden administration State Department official in a closed meeting with journalists in March this year. Over the last two decades, the U.S. has been trying to court India into being a reliable partner in an effort to counter China's influence - both as one of the world's largest emerging economies and as a strategic geopolitical player.

India is the world's most populous country and also one of the biggest consumer markets globally. "It would be hard to overstate India's importance, at the current juncture," said Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "At a time when the global economy faces a lot of headwinds, India's economy has proved to be quite resilient. And when it comes to the world's major challenges - climate change, terrorism, pandemics, nuclear proliferation - it's hard to think of coming up with solutions to any of these transnational issues without having India at the table," Vaishnav said.

And while the relationship is of key strategic mutual interest- trade between the countries reached a record high of $191 billion in 2022- it is not without tension or concern. India's record on human rights and press freedom have been points of concern for the Biden administration.

India's place in the region

India is so valuable to the U.S. as a strategic partner because it can function as a global counterbalance to China - but which direction the balance will swing is still unclear. Critics argue that Washington's bet on New Delhi is ill-placed as they predict Modi would be unwilling to risk conflict with China to support an ally.

For the last four years, India has been caught in a boiling border crisis with China along the 2100 mile Line of Actual Control, a highly contested and undefined border that spans the rugged Himalayas. China has claimed the north eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as 'Southern Tibet.' "India is one of the only militaries in the world to be in an active military standoff with China right now. There are soldiers in uniforms, with guns pointed at each other along a pretty significant international border. They're living the China threat right now," said Vaishnav from Carnegie.

Thousands of troops remain deployed on both sides but experts like Singh who've watched the dispute closely argue that Modi has taken a strong line on China, only in rhetoric.

"On the ground, India has taken a very defensive position. These are not positions meant to restore the status quo as it existed in May, 2020 or to restore the patrolling rights that the Indians had before the Chinese soldiers came in. What we see is a lot of statements targeted towards a certain kind of a Western audience," Singh said.

Since tensions sparked, no Chinese diplomats have been summoned by India, a practice routinely adopted by India's Ministry of external affairs with other countries. Yet, India-China bilateral trade reached record levels with imports from China rising 20% despite the military standoff.

"I think the big red line would be if India takes decisions that go against U.S. geopolitical interest vis-à-vis China. If India fails to align with the U.S. should the Taiwan issue blow up. It could really upend everything and throw open a completely different kind of pressure volume," Singh said.

Indian politics drive international worries

Last summer, the India-U.S. courtship hit a high when President Biden rolled out the red carpet for Modi in his first official state visit. But since then, the relationship has had moments of tension. A major turning point was when Canada accused India of assassinating a Sikh Separatist leader on Canadian soil. As India vehemently denied it, another attempted assassination of another Sikh separatist leader - this time in New York - linked the Indian government to alleged transnational repression.

"It's a shocking allegation that is between two democratic allies. The question is how trustworthy this Indian government is as an ally in the long term, because what makes a trustworthy ally is a government that is accountable to its people that adheres to the rule of law, both domestically and internationally. And then ultimately it is premised on the idea of freedom for all," said Shahbaz from Freedom House.

"These events have sent shockwaves among critics and dissidents, who are extremely worried about their own safety. with questions as to who is next on the list," said Raqib Naik, a U.S.-based journalist and founder of India Hate Lab, a research group that documents hate speech and polarization. Naik said that even in the course of his work, he faces constant threats. In 2023, India Hate Lab documented 668 hate speech events targeting Muslims, 3/4th of them were in BJP ruled states and federally governed territories.

Naik's other website HindutvaWatch.org has been banned in India and its twitter handle suspended ahead of the general elections under a controversial information and technology law. Naik's website tracks, verifies and records hate crimes and hate speeches, often made by far-right extremists.

Last year's allegations of transnational killings have added to the environment of fear among dissident groups.

"After the assassination plot, some dissidents abroad have chosen to self-censor, while others have started to take security precautions. There is visible fear and anxiety and the Biden administration's response has fallen short in assuring the community," Naik said.

"I have spent time with senior U.S. officials discussing this issue and they've compared India to China and former Soviet republics. The subtext question that is present internally is what kind of India are we supporting? And that is a serious question," Singh said.

Democratic expression

"Democracy has to be seen as beyond just the ability to vote. It also encapsulates how people have a right to express themselves, formulate opinions, organize themselves. Part of the general playbook that we're seeing is that more authoritarian leaning leaders, once they get in power, just make it really hard to be dislodged," Shahbaz said.

Modi is vastly popular in India's Hindi-speaking, populous northern belt. Like his contemporaries in Turkey, Russia and Hungary, he has consolidated the majoritarian vote around a populist, nationalistic campaign. Critics believe that the view upheld by these nationalist groups is that the enemy is not outside but within - India's 200 million Muslims who make up just about 14% of its population. The decade-long Modi rule has witnessed numerous hate crimes against India's Muslim and Christian minorities.

"Attacks against Muslims and Christians including mob lynchings, hate crimes, targeting of places of worship and summary demolition of Muslim owned properties have been normalized. And this has been deliberate and systematic," said Naik of India Hate Labs.

"Putin may be traveling on an authoritarian lane and Erdogan may be traveling on a nationalist lane but Hindutva is the highway on which these lanes are. The others don't really have this big ideologically underpinning which India does that makes it more dangerous," Singh said.

Diaspora factor

With around 18 million people living abroad, India has the largest diaspora in the world. But unlike his strong approval ratings domestically, Modi's popularity with Indian Americans is divided. According to Washington- based think-tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 31% of Indian Americans disapprove of Modi and his policies.

And as the U.S. grapples with migration, as of 2021, Indians made up the third largest group of undocumented migrants entering the U.S. Youth unemployment remains high in India and the Modi administration is accused of gatekeeping data and underplaying those numbers. A recent report by the International Labor Organization said the unemployment rate for educated young Indians is nine times higher than those who can't read or write. The aspirations for a better life and employment is what drives hundreds of thousands of Indians to travel the long route that takes several months to illegally enter the U.S.

"India can't serve anyone's economic, security or other strategic interests if it continues to place its Hindu majority against millions of its Muslims and Christians," Naik said. "India makes one-sixth of the world and we are witnessing the makings of a conflict. This political model of hate will tear the country apart and pose a serious challenge to regional and global stability," he added.

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This reporting was supported by a grant from Unity Productions Foundation.