The subtle war in northern Israel, a crucible for escalating tensions with Iran

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has stepped up its strikes in Lebanon and Syria, targeting Iran and its allies.

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Hezbollah's latest attack in northern Israel, on Wednesday, April 17, could be seen as a miniature replica of the one conducted by Iran, its regional sponsor, on Israeli territory on Saturday night. Yet it went relatively unnoticed, as attention has been focused on speculation about what kind of military response Israel might mount after the Iranian strikes, which would likely provoke an even bigger reaction from Tehran.

The Iranian attack, the first to target Israeli territory, was carried out in retaliation for Israel's April 1 strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus - which killed General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, Quds Force commander for Syria and Lebanon - and was on a completely different scale to the Hezbollah strike along the border. Nevertheless, both stem from a common source: The long-distance war of attrition that Iran and Israel have been waging since the Tehran-backed Hamas attack on Israeli territory on October 7, 2023.

Its intensity, however, had not been anticipated by Israeli strategists. "On April 1, the Israelis made a mistake," said a diplomatic source. "They had not correctly assessed the reaction that would be triggered by the strike on Damascus, thinking that it would continue the pattern of actions of this type undertaken over the last six months."

The Iranian strike has its roots in developments over the past decade, and its impetus in the post-October 7 context, when Israel - which, for a few days, had feared that Hezbollah would carry out an operation from Lebanon comparable to that of the Islamic movement from Gaza - engaged in an ongoing exchange of fire with Hezbollah. In the space of six months, the reactivation of this "northern front" has killed 10 Israeli soldiers and 8 civilians, and 368 people in Lebanon, both militants and civilians. A toll that, in the pre-October 7 context, would undoubtedly have given rise to reprisals, or even to a form of escalation.

'Strike first'

At the same time, Israel stepped up its strikes against Iranian interests in neighboring Syria. On both of these fronts, Israel increased its targeted operations against individuals or facilities, based on intelligence gathered over the years in anticipation of a coming war with Hezbollah that some officials in the security establishment had deemed "inevitable." This focus resulted in the compilation of highly detailed lists of targets, which had already been used before October 7, albeit sparingly.

"For over a decade, Israel's transnational approach to its conflict with Iran has included a so-called 'campaign between the wars' in Syria. Even before the term was coined, Israel's strategy in Syria was aimed at containing Iranian-backed groups, notably Hezbollah, without provoking full-scale war," explained analyst Haid Haid in an April 12 article published by the British think tank Chatham House. After October 7, 2023, this system kicked into high gear. From then on, the emphasis was on eliminating leaders, destroying facilities and weapons depots, and destroying command centers. This took place in ever greater depth in both Lebanon and Syria.

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