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Doncaster tips: Best value bets for Saturday April 1

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The British Flat season kicks off at Doncaster on Saturday and our expert has two fancies on the card.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, April 1

1pt win Titian in 2.25 Doncaster at 14/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt win Fast Response in 3.00 Doncaster at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Two of the last four winners of the Lincoln - backed this year by Pertemps Network - have gone on to run in Group 1 races in their career, and if there's something of that calibre lurking among the 2023 field then it seems highly likely to be Awaal.

Trained by Simon and Ed Crisford, who have already made great waves as a training partnership but look like taking things to the next level this season based on events out in Dubai, Awaal tops the adjusted Timeform ratings here and still commands the 'p' symbol as a signifier of further improvement to come.

That's after he won by the best part of four lengths on handicap debut at Redcar (heavy) when last seen in October, and although the official handicapper has stepped in with a subsequent 9lb hike, this horse's earlier body of form also reads exceptionally well.

He beat the subsequent Britannia winner Thesis at Lingfield in May and, prior to being put away for the autumn, had William Haggas' reopposing Al Mubhir behind in fourth when narrowly denied by the now 108-rated Phantom Flight at Haydock.

Awaal, able to run off 102 at Doncaster on Saturday, has been gelded over the winter and looks bound for some big targets this year. He has also seemingly, on paper at least, fared reasonably well with the draw (17) as he's in amongst a bunch of other well-fancied runners in the middle-to-high stalls.

The Haggas-trained pair Al Mubhir and Montassib are 10 and 21, Wanees breaks from 22, Awaal's fascinating stablemate Croupier is in 14, while he's right next to the returning Cambridgeshire winner Majestic in box 16.

Strictly speaking, the bulk of the early pace could be provided by those in the low numbers, with Helm Rock (2) and Encourageable (3) confirmed forward-goers, but Awaal isn't exactly going to be dawdling early on himself, and at this stage it's hard to argue the draw being a major concern for anything in the line-up.

Long-term fancy Bopedro (stall 18) will be held up by Danny Tudhope and, without wishing to repeat the full case for him, Johan reminded everyone last season that the Lincoln doesn't always fall the to the flashy four-year-olds from the top yards in Newmarket.

Bopedro is seven now and onto his sixth trainer in David O'Meara, but he's clearly well-treated on the pick of his big-field handicap form for Jessica Harrington and he copes well with testing conditions.

The juice in his price has dried up a little but I still reckon he's a sporting each-way play against the obvious market leaders for anyone who has yet to have a bet in the race.

The other outsider to consider closely is Toshizou first time up for Roger Fell.

Fell often doesn't get fully rocking and rolling with his string until the summer but he had half a dozen winners last April and this horse strikes me as one who might not stand too much racing. That would give connections every incentive to have him as fit as possible on seasonal debut, and his record when fresh is encouraging enough in that regard.

Incidentally, he finished well down the field when Bopedro won the Irish Cambridgeshire at the Curragh in August 2021, but the rest of his (limited) handicap form is solid, including when sent off favourite on a couple of occasions while running from marks of 98 and 96.

The most recent of those came on what proved to be his final outing for Joseph O'Brien at Leopardstown in October, when he was a close fifth to recent Irish Lincolnshire runner-up Saltonstall, and the British handicapper has dropped Toshizou to a career-low 94.

Soft (and worsening) ground looks a major stumbling block for the son of Galileo, though, as he was generally kept to better conditions during his time in Ireland, and he's probably more one to monitor for the time being having been bought relatively cheaply (22,000 guineas) out of the Tattersalls Autumn horses-in-training sales.

The Pertemps Network Spring Mile Handicap is a compelling puzzle, with the layers going 7/1 the field at the time of writing.

Fell has an interesting one here in the race-fit Harswell Duke, while Bopedro's new stable companion Zozimus isn't far off the top of the market and I can see the appeal with him despite the long absence since we last saw him in action for Donnacha O'Brien.

The fact he just missed the cut for the Lincoln means he's got to lump a big weight here instead, though, and that's a bit off-putting for one whose sole success from 16 starts came in a Dundalk maiden when sporting first-time blinkers (cheekpieces return this weekend).

Preference at the odds is for TITIAN, who wasn't seen to best effect in a six-runner handicap over 10 furlongs at Newcastle at the start of March, his second run of the year following a close-up third over the extended nine furlongs at Wolverhampton in mid-February.

In-form Zealot (winner since) made all at Newcastle under Billy Loughnane and Titian couldn't get in any way competitive after racing keenly at the back early on. He's much better than that and is able to run off 2lb lower back on turf, so he's just a couple of pounds higher than when winning a competitive contest on easy ground at York towards the end of last season.

Things clearly didn't work out for this horse during a brief spell over hurdles for David Pipe but prior to that he'd looked useful for William Haggas, winning a soft-ground handicap at Doncaster on his final run for that yard.

Nearly all of his Flat form is over longer distances than this, but Titian did win at the bare mile in his youth and his proven stamina will be a major asset given the nature of this race and underfoot conditions.

He's also drawn close to the bulk of the early pace up the middle, and I fancy Graham Lee will have a decent target to aim at when things start to get serious.

The general 14/1 looks too big and I'll be backing him at anything north of 10s.

Elsewhere on the Doncaster card, the Pertemps Network EBF Brocklesby Stakes can't genuinely interest too many punters who don't have some sort of inside line to one of the yards, and the obvious ones on paper - Valadero and Loaded Gun - have been well found in the market.

The Pertemps Network Cammidge Trophy Stakes has attracted a dozen runners and all eyes on El Caballo, who was well on his journey through the three-year-old ranks by this time last year and was sent off favourite for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.

He was well beaten there and backing him after a subsequent 288-day layoff makes zero appeal, which leads me to an attractive value alternative - stablemate FAST RESPONSE.

Kept very busy last season, she really earned her corn when winning at Listed level over this course and distance in October and won't need to improve much more to be mixing in Group company this term.

She's almost completely dependent on ground conditions so Karl Burke is bound to have done plenty of work with her this spring in order to maximise her chances before the summer, and I reckon her and El Caballo might be able to sit nice and handy and hopefully get first run on the likes of Asjad and Commanche Falls, who both like a strong pace to chase.

King's Lynn is extremely solid at this level but you wouldn't be running scared of him if having a bet, and Ehraz is the potential fly in the ointment as he starts out at four having been gelded.

However, he's never looked the easiest to win with and his Newmarket victory when last seen had little genuine substance to it. That's all before getting onto the fact he's never raced on soft ground.

It's Fast Response for me at around 8/1 in the hope she can live up to her name by picking up where she left off in the autumn at the first time of asking.

Over at Kempton, the Unibet More Extra Place Races Magnolia Stakes and the Unibet Queen's Prize Handicap are very respectable contests but the closest I came to a bet was My Mate Ted in the Try Unibet's Improved Bet Builder Handicap.

He's another who has undergone a gelding operation since last sighted and that was no doubt prompted by a complete flop when favourite for a Newmarket handicap when last seen in October.

His previous half-length second at Windsor was a decent enough effort in the context of this race and he seemed to take to this Kempton surface well when winning here back in August, but there's not quite enough to lure me in despite a low draw and the booking of Daniel Muscutt, who seems to be riding with a new-found confidence at the moment.

Published at 1500 GMT on 31/03/23

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