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Downing of strategic bomber 300km into Russia could make Kremlin rethink strategy

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Reports that Ukraine shot down a supersonic missile carrier bomber with anti-missile units for the first time 300km into Russia could force the Kremlin to "change how they carry out air campaigns", a security expert has told i.

The supersonic missile carrier, often used in deadly missile strikes on Ukraine and thought to be worth about $40m, crashed into a field in Russia's southwestern Stavropol region.

It follows strikes in January and February on two Russian A-50 aircraft in the Russian region of Krasnodar and over the Sea of Azov - reportedly costing Russia around $350m (£281m) each.

Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told i the development may push Russia into rethinking its air strategy.

"Russian pilots have seen the loss of various high-value aircraft," he said. "They would be reacting nervously to this news."

Mr Giles also stressed the significance of the crash site being "deep into the Russian hinterland".

"The crash site, in theory, is far beyond where they [Ukraine] could reach, meaning something altogether more interesting could have happened," he said. "It shows Ukraine has the ability to reach deep into Russian airspace.

"It could force them [Russia] to once again change how they carry out air campaigns."

Russia has 57 Tu-22M3s, according to the 2024 Military Balance report by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber crashed in a field outside Stavropol in southwestern Russia (Photo: Governor of Stavropol Krai / AFP)

Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR) on Friday said the Russian aircraft was shot down around 300km away from Ukraine by the "same means that were previously used to shoot [a] Russian A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft".

Reports suggest Russia has fewer than 60 of the high-value Tu-22M3 aircrafts, which cost around $40m each.

The GUR said the bomber had "carried out a missile attack against Ukraine on the night of April 19".

🚨 BREAKING: It appears the Russian Tu-22M3 supersonic bomber was shot down by Ukraine with a long-range missile as it was returning to base after launching cruise missiles at Odesa. Crash site is at the very least 400km away from the frontline in the Stavropol region of Russia. pic.twitter.com/ZNae9YmUQB

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) April 19, 2024

Unconfirmed social media footage showed a warplane with its tail on fire spiralling toward the ground.

i couldn't independently verify the footage. The Russian Defence Ministry has been contacted for comment.

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While the ministry said the crash was a result of a "technical malfunction", Ukraine's Air Force Commander General Mykola Oleschuk claimed: "For the first time, the anti-aircraft missile units of the (Ukrainian) Air Force… destroyed a Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber - the carrier of Kh-22 cruise missiles, which the Russian terrorists use to attack peaceful Ukrainian cities."

Mr Oleschuk repeated calls for Ukraine to be given "more means, more missiles" by the West, in order to "better protect the frontline territories from Russian terrorism".

Meanwhile, Mr Giles highlighted how the deficit of anti-aircraft capabilities on the Ukrainian side had had "devastating consequences… on innocent civilians".

Russian bombers were able to destroy a key power plant serving Kyiv earlier this month, in the village of Trypillia, because Ukraine had run out of defensive missiles, according to Volodymyr Zelensky.

Speaking after a wave of missile attacks on dozens of Ukrainian and civilian structures, the President told the US news outlet PBS on Tuesday: "There were 11 missiles flying. We destroyed the first seven, and [the remaining] four destroyed Trypillia. Why? Because there were zero missiles. We ran out of missiles to defend Trypillia."

Kyiv has said it needs 25 Patriot missile systems to properly protect its energy systems across Ukrainian territory

The US House of Representatives is due to vote on an aid bill for Ukraine worth $61bn - which has so far been stalled by the Republican party.

Mr Giles said Saturday's vote will be important for Ukraine's future anti-air capabilities, for "Ukraine and Europe as a whole".

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