Wales has a problem that is the worst in the UK and far worse than feared

Unlike the rest of the UK, the way official government statistics for adult obesity in Wales is calculated from entirely self-reported data. England and Scotland also take this approach, but the data there is "adjusted to account for people making errors".

The problem with not ajdusting the data for errors, is that people who self-report their own weight and height measurements often underestimate their weight while overestimating their height. This means their body mass index is often underestimated, resulting in conflicting figures for obesity.

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Nesta, a charity that looks at society's biggest problems and comes up with solutions, carried out analysis on the self-reported data from 2022-2023, and adjusted it to correct for under reporting. The results saw obesity rates in Wales rise from just over a quarter (25%) to a third (34%), meaning an additional 200,000 in Wales are obese than previously recorded. For the latest health and Covid news, sign up to our newsletter here

This would mean that obesity rates are drastically higher in Wales compared with England (26%), Scotland (29%) and Northern Ireland (27%). This also puts the obesity rates in Wales for adults, in line with those for children in Wales.

In Wales 26.2% of children are overweight or obese (according to figures from 2021-2022), and these figures are based on measurements taken by professionals.

A report from Nesta said: "As the new First Minister of Wales and former Minister for Health & Social Services, Vaughan Gething is reaching a month in post, Nesta's analysis reveals the need for a new approach to obesity rate data in Wales so that service provision can be better targeted. Nesta is highlighting that adjusting for the underestimation of obesity data would provide the Welsh Government with better insight to focus its resources on obesity prevention through a range of measures, including backing healthiness targets for large grocery retailers." Try WalesOnline Premium for FREE by clicking here for no ads, fun puzzles and brilliant new features

Jonathan Bone, mission manager of healthy life at Nesta Cymru and author of the research, said: "Obesity is a serious public health issue in Wales, something that the Welsh Government has shown an admirable commitment to tackling previously, such as through restrictions on the promotion of high fat, salt and sugar products. But we are concerned that Wales' official figures on obesity are not painting an accurate picture.

"Our analysis shows that Wales could be the nation with the highest obesity rate in the UK, when you correct for the use of self-reporting, because of the tendency for people to over report their height and under report their weight.

"The new First Minister has previously outlined his concerns about the high levels of childhood obesity in Wales, in his role as Minister for Health & Social Services. He should now look to make tackling obesity in Wales a key focus of his administration, and work with the other nations on developing UK-wide innovative approaches.

"To make good decisions on public health, you need good data. Having consistent reporting of public health data is important and the Welsh Government's current approach means that they could be underestimating the impact of obesity, including for people aged over 55. Accounting for self-reporting, including retrospectively, could improve the targeting of public health interventions and make it easier to compare data both over time and between the UK nations."

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: "Like other countries we use both self-reported and measured data. For adults we use self-reported data through the National Survey for Wales and our Child Measurement programme uses measured data. There are benefits and disadvantages to all methods of surveying.

"Being consistent with the method used within each survey allows for trends overtime to be measured, and for us to assess the impacts our policies are having.

"The adjustment formula used by Nesta is based on data collected ten years ago in England and may not be appropriate to apply to current statistics for Wales. We are currently reviewing options for collecting directly measured heights and weights for adults in Wales.

"The Health Secretary is clear that reducing levels of obesity is one of her top priorities because it increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, heart disease and many cancers.

"Our Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales Strategy takes a cross-government approach to reducing obesity, combining individual behaviour change with systemic change to create healthier environments and support for everyone. This includes funding to ensure lifetime weight management support for anyone in Wales who needs it."

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