2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Early Draft Results Following The NFL Draft - Dynasty League Football

First Round of a Superflex Draft on Fleaflicker

For the most part, this was pretty chalky. The top eight was the predictable top eight, although I've seen some variance once Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr came off the board. This year, however, all the excitement starts after 1.08. With the surprising first-round selections of Michael Penix and Bo Nix, that first-round draft capital has pumped up both of their dynasty ADPs.

Looking at DLF's superflex rookie ADP from April, Penix had an ADP of 13.7, and Nix had an ADP of 18.3. In this draft, Nix was selected 1.09, and Penix was 1.12. So, more or less, Penix has remained the same, but Nix seems to be the big winner in the early post-NFL draft fog, as he seems to be the clear QB5 in the class now. Their presence in the top 12 is an overall positive, in my opinion, because if you were picking late in the first, you had no chance of landing a quarterback, and if you were picking in the early second, a couple of players have now fallen out of the first becoming a decent value.

Jonathon Brooks was most people's RB1 going into the draft, and landing in Carolina did nothing to dissuade them. He's been the first running back off the board in every draft I've seen, even when he falls out of the first. The WR4 in this draft was Keon Coleman. Coleman was falling a bit in mocks following the combine, but his early round two draft capital, combined with his Bills landing spot as their potential WR1 on opening day, seems to have gotten drafters back on board. He doesn't seem to be the solidified WR4 in this class, as each draft will be different, but here he was a first-round pick.

First Round of a Single-QB Draft on Fleaflicker

The standard Marvin Harrison-Malik Nabers start to this draft, and more often than not, that duo has been followed by Rome Odunze. Brock Bowers landed at 1.04, which is in line with what we were seeing predraft as well. At first glance, I thought Xavier Worthy at 1.05 was going to be my outlier, but looking back at April's ADP, Worthy had an ADP of 6.00, so if anything, maybe we should be surprised that he isn't locked into the 1.04 pick after the Chiefs traded up to grab him.

Jonathon Brooks and Trey Benson were the only first-round running backs. Jaylen Wright had been gaining steam heading into the draft, but his draft capital, combined with the Dolphins' crowded backfield, seems to have pumped the brakes on his ascent up the board. I have Benson ahead of Brooks, but I can't fault anyone for going with Brooks.

Brian Thomas Jr fell a bit but has remained locked into the first round, and Ladd McConkey is in the opposite situation, where he is rising a little bit as he remains a first-round pick. The single-QB first round, for the most part, looks to have been settled months ago, with no significant shakeups. Of course, this doesn't apply to Keon Coleman again; much like we saw in superflex, he's getting a considerable bump playing with Josh Allen.

The one weird occurrence in this draft was seeing two quarterbacks selected in round one. Caleb Williams was always a lock to go somewhere in the tail end of the first, but I did not think I would ever see Jayden Daniels in the first round. This supports my point in the intro about actual drafts being slightly different from the mocks. If you're picking 12th, you probably already have a good team, and this is a luxury pick for you. Maybe you've got aging veterans at the position and need a young quarterback for the future with a roster stacked at running back and receiver. In that case, it makes a lot of sense.

10-Team, Superflex Best Ball Complete Draft

The first thing that jumped off the page for me was JJ McCarthy falling to 1.08 and Xavier Worthy going at 1.07, thus bumping Bowers out of the top eight. It is a best-ball league, and Worthy on the Chiefs screams explosion games that could win you several weeks throughout the year, so I get it. I also thought Nix would have gone higher than 14th overall, and although I hate the landing spot, Michael Penix at 17th overall is a massive steal.

People approach best ball leagues wildly differently. Some people don't alter their rankings from regular drafts; some shake it up significantly. Put me in the latter category. A player like Worthy this year becomes much more valuable to me based on his big play ability. The same would be true for Jaylen Wright and Jahwar Jordan, for example. I'm not looking for safe floors unless someone could be a PPR machine like Ladd McConkey, who should see an obscene amount of targets from day one. Or, I'm looking for a player who I can imagine seeing a significant increase in playing time thanks to injuries ahead of them. Isaac Guerendo could have several RB1 weeks if Christian McCaffery were to get injured. Jermaine Burton could see a significant role catching balls from Joe Burrow if Tee Higgins takes his time returning from an injury as he unhappily plays on the franchise tag. I use a lot more imagination in best ball.

Ben Sinnott went too low, given the depth chart ahead of him, and I was surprised to see Spencer Rattler taken at all in a 10-teamer. Ja'Lynn Polk wasn't odd with the 30th pick, but many people have his new teammate Javon Baker ranked right beside him - and some have Baker higher - so for Baker to go undrafted was a little surprise given what else the Patriots have as receiving weapons.

Three Rounds of a 14-Team Superflex

From a 10-teamer to a 14-teamer, whew. The top eight was once again the top eight, and Nix was lucky number nine again. Worthy again established himself as the WR4, with McConkey, Thomas Jr, and Coleman closing out the first. This was how I imagined most rookie drafts playing out. What I found a bit surprising was that Trey Benson fell to 16th overall, which was the latest I saw the RB2 selected.

We've seen multiple first rounds already, so I wanted to look a little more at rounds two and three for this draft. Xavier Legette at 18 might end up as a huge steal if Bryce Young can make any progress as an NFL quarterback. Adonai Mitchell was another riser in the predraft process, but a draft day slide led to a fantasy draft slide, as he was selected 18th here after going 11th in predraft mocks.

We saw a small running back run in the second, with running backs accounting for five of the 14 second-round selections (we had another go at 3.01, resulting in six of 15 picks on running backs). Again, it went pretty chalky with Ricky Pearsall, Polk, Troy Franklin, Jermaine Burton, and Javon Baker going in this round, too. There are a few players in this range that I don't like, and I would have happily preferred a player who went in the third, but that is a matter of personal preference and nothing egregious.

Round three saw half of its picks used on running backs and a duo of tight ends. I mentioned all of the off-season writing in this series about the depth in this class, and I'm still amazed when I see some of the players still available. Kimani Vidal might have one of the top three landing spots for running backs. Ben Sinnott and Ja'Tavion Sanders landed in great spots with plenty of opportunities for significant roles. With the exception of Rattler and Braelon Allen, everyone else in this round has a path to touches, too.

I hope you enjoyed this little peek into how my early rookie drafts have played out and you were able to get some insight into how your drafts might play out. With few exceptions, it looks like dynasty owners aren't overreacting like we've seen in the past. There was not much movement in ADP before and after the combine, and there doesn't seem to be much movement in ADP before and after the NFL draft. If you have been preparing for your rookie drafts all off-season, you should be ready now and have a good idea of how things will go. Unfortunately, the learning curve won't be too noticeable this year, so your league-mates, who haven't been paying attention, might not be too far behind as they play catch-up once your drafts kick off.

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Like a true degenerate, John has over 20 years of fantasy experience across all sports. Nowadays he primarily focuses on dynasty and redraft football, fantasy golf, and fantasy hockey and has written about each across multiple platforms for nearly 5 years. He loves rookie mock drafts and can always find a negative, pessimistic angle on all your favorite players.

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