Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction MLB Picks 5/4/24

Game Info: Saturday, May 4, 2024 at 7:15 pm (Minute Maid Park)

Framber Valdez (1-0) (2.60) vs Logan Gilbert (2-0) (2.02)

Betting Odds: Houston Astros -149 / Seattle Mariners +126 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: FOX Stream the MLB Game of the Day all season on ESPN+. Sign up now!

The Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros meet Saturday in MLB action from Minute Maid Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here's a Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Seattle Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound here and Gilbert is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 44 strikeouts this season. In his career, Gilbert is 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA and 45 strikeouts against Houston. Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros here and is 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 16 strikeouts this season. In his career, Valdez is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 71 strikeouts against Seattle.

Seattle Mariners Recap

The Seattle Mariners come into this one looking to bounce back after a 5-3 loss to Houston in Friday's opener. The Mariners led for a lot of that game, but a big 7th inning pushed Houston in front as Seattle's bullpen had a rare miscue. It wasn't the start that the Mariners wanted after series wins over the Braves, Rangers and Diamondbacks over the last week and a half.

Mariners Boast Solid Lineup

Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners with 34 hits including a .270 batting average and is one of four Mariners with a team-high 4 doubles. Cal Raleigh has a team-high 6 home runs along with 13 RBIs while Jorge Polanco has 5 home runs with 13 RBIs and a team-high 42 strikeouts. Mitch Haniger also has 4 home runs and 18 RBIs.

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Logan Gilbert Record this season: 2-0 ERA: 2.03
• The Astros have lost nine of their last 10 night games following a home win.
• The Mariners have won seven of their last eight road games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 night games at Minute Maid Park following a win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games at Minute Maid Park.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against the Astros.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to add to their series-opening win on Friday. Houston utilized a big 7th inning with 4 runs to break the game open and never looked back for a nice win to keep the run going after series wins over the Guardians and Rockies.

Astros Have The Names, Just Need To Keep Producing

Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 46 hits and a .348 batting average with 7 home runs and 9 doubles while Kyle Tucker has a team-high 8 homers with 7 doubles and 21 RBIs. Yordan Alvarez also has 7 homers with 18 RBIs while Altuve has the Astros' team lead with 7 stolen bases so far this season.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Framber Valdez Record this season: 1-0 ERA: 2.60
• The Mariners have lost each of their last five games at Minute Maid Park against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have won five of their last six games.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in five of their last six games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven Saturday night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

I'm on the Mariners here. I think Seattle was a bit unlucky to not get the win in Friday's series opener, as the Mariners were the better team for the bulk of that game before the bullpen couldn't find the plate in the 7th inning. This should be a great pitching matchup, but Gilbert was far better on the road last year and did a great job of holding the Astros in check while Valdez had some issues against Seattle. If this is a tight game late, I still give the edge to Seattle's pen. Give me the Mariners.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.