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2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 29

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A little over a week ago, I wrote about the balance of games the Cubs lost where it appeared they had the game won and the opposite. One commenter zeroed in on the unique animal that is four blown ninth-inning leads. To be sure, even some bad teams don't cough up for such games over the course of a year. Usually one of the most lopsided numbers for any team is their record when winning going into the ninth (and vice versa when losing going into the ninth in the other direction). Zoomed in that tight, there is no guarantee that the Cubs win four such games all year long when they are down heading to the ninth. I suspect they will, but it's a hard thing to do.

But if we zoom out, Monday night's game was definitely one where the Mets felt they had this one. Thanks to fabulous work by Jameson Taillon, the Cubs effectively drafted the Mets from the first inning onwards and at the first opportunity, they came back. There is no exact science to this idea of games where the outcome flipped later. Certainly in one of those back and forth games where the lead keeps changing hands, you still have some hope if you take the lead late.

That said, there is a little bit of fluke luck for the Mets in this game. Sequencing is the word we often use. Seven dominating innings from the starter. One walk and one hit batter through seven innings, two batters over the minimum. Once again, a very large majority of the time when you get that performance, you win. That remains true if he finishes the no-hitter or not.

Thanks to that fine performance by Taillon in his own right, the Mets got into a trick box. To be fair, the eighth inning didn't see Luis Severino really fall apart. But, ordinarily in a 1-0 game, in modern baseball, you are going to turn it over to the bullpen. And again, on even the worst teams, often the back end of the bullpen is pretty tough. Sure, there are always a few teams with a dumpster fire bullpen. But there are also a number of otherwise uncompetitive teams that are lights out on those nights where they do have the lead.

Again, a walk, a single and a couple of grounders isn't exactly a collapse. But, you do have a pitcher deeper into the game than any starter is often these days, hitters seeing him for the third time and maybe just a hair less dominant than he'd been. If the Mets have a little larger lead, he can comfortably chase that no-hitter. If the Cubs scorch a couple of balls in the seventh and Severino has a little less dominating game, maybe he isn't there. Just a really tough spot for the Mets.

All of that said, you don't get to book the win before the last out, but fairly justified if you were a Met or a Mets fan and you were counting some chickens that haven't hatched. I don't ever suggest there is some giant ledger that keeps score and evens these games out over time. I'm sure there are examples of some very good teams that aren't particularly good at coming from behind and some very bad ones that by some quirk, do pull out a handful of such games late.

I have always believed the come-from-behind is a staple for a team that is going to be very good. Fighting to the last out even when things don't look good is a very positive trait. Being realistic, the comeback Sunday night fell short, but the Cubs just came off of the mat two days in a row against a good team with a starter who was dominant. Is some of that dominance surely some collective offensive struggle for the Cubs? Probably. But also these two pitchers are very good. One with a history of being very good Monday night and one who appears to be ascending to stardom on Sunday night.

Surely, that's a litmus test that I use for a good team that really is really a symptom that points to something else. What do I expect to find on a team that is very good at coming from behind? Team depth. Very much over generalizing, there are two types of comebacks. One is based on the ineptitude of the other team. This comeback will often feature some combination of walks and errors with a timely hit or two. That one isn't particularly revealing of the comeback team other than you didn't get away of a team imploding.

The other type of comeback is what the Cubs did on both Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, Daniel Palencia threw two strong innings just as the Red Sox had gained momentum in that game. On Monday, Jameson Taillon more or less matched Luis Severino pitch for pitch. So that's ingredient one of the engineered comeback. You have to keep the game in reach or just doesn't matter. If the Cubs are down four or five runs, a walk, a broken bat single and a couple of grounders are of no consequence.

Ingredient number two is taking strong at bats all of the way down to the end. That's often indicative of a deep, talented team. Often this aspect is boosted by a talented bat coming off the bench. In this one, Nick Madrigal didn't come through with a hit with the game on the line. He did put the ball in play and avoid the double play while the game was won. This isn't necessarily an example of a time when some guy who would be starting on other teams comes through for you while you are coming back. Though a hat tip to Madrigal for putting the ball into play with less than two outs and the tying run on third. I don't have to make any of you search your memory banks long and hard for hitters that failed repeatedly in such situations. It does matter to have a guy with good bat to ball skills in that precise instance.

Sunday's come from behind actually would have been more remarkable than Monday's. On Sunday, the win probability as ESPN told us at least a dozen times, had reached more than 95 percent before the Cubs came back to tie it. The Mets only reached as high as roughly 80 percent after the top of the seventh. Both teams surely thought they had it. Both teams probably will win the overwhelming majority of such games this year. The Cubs did well to get one of those and weren't far from taking both of them.

This Cubs team certainly has the ingredients to be fairly special if they can get and stay healthy. They don't have quite enough over-the-top type talent to be very good without a healthy compliment of players. This stretch of baseball right now is probably a blend of the other team playing very well and some of the Cubs roster being exploited a little with so many key performers out of commission. They've responded extremely well to injuries, but eroding at so much of your depth will bite you in a number of ways. Hopefully, they weather this storm and there is much less of it the remainder of the season. I'd certainly like to see how good this team can be and to enjoy the ride.

Let's find three positives in this low scoring victory.

  1. Jameson Taillon gets the top spot from me. When he allows a homer to the first batter he sees, there is a natural pause to wonder if this is going to be the team's first three game skid of the year. But a lot of baseball to be played. Severino was justifiably the story of this game. But also there was Taillon hanging around to face 27 batters and recording 22 outs, the first Cub to record outs in the seventh and then the eighth inning. Four hits, one walk, one run. An excellent performance and there is no chance to win this one without him keeping it close.
  2. Christopher Morel hit a two-run homer to win this game in the ninth inning. Edwin Diaz is a tough customer. He has 209 saves in 415 career appearances. He's averaged 14.8 K/9 across his entire career. A hat tip here to both Morel for his defensive work and Craig Counsell. In a large percentage of the Cubs' games to date, Morel is on the bench in the ninth inning for defensive purposes. But this time he was in the game and positioned to be the hero (he also had a chance on Sunday late for heroics).
  3. I'm going with Nick Madrigal for the third spot. It feels like getting runners in from third with less than two outs has been a bugaboo for the Cubs forever. So I'm not taking that fielder's choice grounder for granted. Just about any of the eighth inning hitters for the Cubs fit fine in this spot. Probably a handful of others, but I thought this one deserved a call out.

Game 29, April 29: Cubs 3, Mets 1 (18-11)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

THREE GOATS:

WPA Play of the Game: Christopher Morel's two-out, two-run homer in the ninth inning. (.450)

*Mets Play of the Game: The Cubs only had two baserunners before the eighth inning. One of them was Mike Tauchman after a hit by pitch in the seventh. He moved to second on a ground out and there he was with one out when Christopher Morel stepped to the plate. Morel made solid contact, by way of a line drive to second that turned into a double play, preserving the shutout and no hitter a bit longer. (.132)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Poll

Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?

This poll is closed

306 votes total Vote Now

Yesterday's Winner: Mike Tauchman got 90 percent of the votes for Sunday's game with Hayden Wesneski getting almost all of the remainder.

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 6/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

Up Next: Game two of four against the Mets. Javier Assad (2-0, 2.00). Javier has thrown 27 innings over five starts and has a 1.00 WHIP. He's been very good. If there is any quibble, it's in getting just a little more length out of him. He's pitched into the sixth in two of his last three starts.

Sean Manaea (1-1, 3.33) gets the start for the Mets. The 32-year-old lefty was the 34th overall pick for the Royals back in 2013 out of Indiana State. Manaea has a lifetime mark of 66-57 with a 4.08 ERA over 201 appearances, 171 starts. He's thrown 24⅓ innings across his five starts this year. Last time out, he lasted two outs into the fifth in a game in San Francisco. He allowed four hits and four walks while striking out six and was not charged with an earned run.

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