Assassination of Hamas leader in Lebanon deepens concerns of broader regional conflict

Geoff Bennett:

There is fresh concern tonight of a potential regional war in the Middle East after Tuesday's killing of a top Hamas leader in Beirut, Lebanon.

Amna Nawaz:

Israel has not acknowledged any role in the attack, but it's spent today awaiting possible retaliation by Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese militia backed by Iran.

In Lebanon today, the leader of Hamas-allied Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, delivered a grave warning.

Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah Leader (through interpreter):

If the Israeli enemy thinks about going to war against Lebanon, our combat will have no limits, no rules and no safeguards. Yesterday's crime was severe. It will not go unpunished.

Amna Nawaz:

That in response to the assassination of senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri at his home in Beirut by a suspected Israeli drone strike.

Yesterday, the head of Hamas' political wing, Ismail Haniyeh, lambasted the killing.

Ismail Haniyeh, Chairman, Hamas Political Bureau (through interpreter):

We affirm that the assassination by the Zionist occupation of Saleh al-Arouri on Lebanese lands is a complete terrorist act, a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and an expansion of Israel's hostility against our people and nation.

Amna Nawaz:

Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility, but today, Mossad spy agency chief David Barnea pledged to hunt down everyone involved in the October 7 attacks.

David Barnea, Head of Israeli Mossad (through interpreter): The Mossad is committed to settling the score with the murderers who rampaged through the Gaza border on October 7. It will take time, but we will get them, no matter where they are.

Amna Nawaz:

It's all deepening concerns of a broader regional conflict. Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire at the Lebanese border since the war began. And Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted several commercial vessels in the Red Sea headed for Israel.

International shipping company Maersk announced yesterday it's suspending all shipping traffic following a weekend attack on one of its vessels. In the occupied West Bank today, protests erupted over the killing of al-Arouri. And in the packed encampments of war-torn Gaza, Palestinians say the assassination will not deter Hamas.

Man (through interpreter):

If Saleh al-Arouri is gone, a million others will emerge and stronger than him. Things won't stop because of al-Arouri, God willing.

Amna Nawaz:

Meanwhile, the U.S. declassified intelligence yesterday that corroborates Israeli claims that Hamas used Gaza's largest hospital, Al Shifa, to hold some Israeli hostages and house command infrastructure. It was raided by the IDF in November, sparking widespread condemnation by humanitarian organizations.

Back in Gaza, the southern town of Rafah has turned into one massive tent city for displaced Gazans. There is no heat and no real shelter from the cool, wet Mediterranean winter.

Zayda Al-Breem constantly has to clear water off the tent roof so it doesn't collapse.

Zayda Al-Breem, Displaced Gazan (through interpreter):

Displacement is somewhat bearable, but displacement and winter is unbearable. All through the night, one covers this child and brings that one closer. A woman just asked me for a desk pan to dispose of the rainwater, but I don't have one.

Amna Nawaz:

IDF bombings on areas they fled continue. Chaos erupted across parts of the central and southern strip today after devastating airstrikes, a new year bringing new death, new destruction, and new questions for what comes next.

And one of the biggest concerns as the war goes on is the prospect of the conflict widening.

To decode what this means for the region, we turn now to Randa Slim, director of the Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program at the Middle East Institute. She joins me now from Beirut.

Randa, it's good to see you.

Tell us a little bit more about Saleh al-Arouri. Who was he? What should we know about him? And what does his death mean for Hamas?

Randa Slim, Middle East Institute:

Saleh al-Arouri is the chair of the political bureau of Hamas.

He is also in charge of Hamas operations in the West Bank. He was one of the founders of the military wing of Hamas, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades. And, more importantly, he's also somebody who has been closely involved in the relationship between Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah.

There has been a rift between Hamas on one hand and Iran and Hezbollah on the other after the beginning of the Civil War in Syria and Hamas' decision to side not with the Bashar al-Assad regime, but with the opposition. And, as a result, Hamas' leaders left Damascus at the time.

And so, in the last five years, Saleh al-Arouri has been involved in healing that rift, in leading negotiations between Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah.

Amna Nawaz:

So, Randa, what's the impact of al-Arouri's death on Hamas as an organization?

Randa Slim:

Hamas is the type of organization that can survive the death of al-Arouri, as it has done in the past by surviving the death of other leaders who were assassinated over the years by Israel.

And so I think it's going to be, in the short term — organizationally, it's going to be difficult, but, in the medium term to long term, I think Hamas will be able to survive his death, and it's not going to affect its operation.

Now, he was also involved, he has been involved in the negotiation over the Israeli hostages as representative of a wing of Hamas. And so how this attack and this assassination affect those negotiations is yet to be seen. It might derail them. It might delay them.

Amna Nawaz:

But, as you know, we're constantly evaluating what every move means for whether or not this conflict could broaden into the wider region?

If al-Arouri is in Lebanon as sort of the liaison, the connection between Hamas and Hezbollah, does his death mean that you see Hezbollah entering the war in fuller force now?

Randa Slim:

No, not at all.

I think Hezbollah is still sticking by its decision not to get baited into — by Israel into a larger escalation, into an all-out war. Nasrallah Hezbollah, Hezbollah secretary-general, in his speech today paid his condolences to family of al-Arouri, to Hamas, but he did not go into detail about this, dragging them into any kind of major escalation.

In fact, to the contrary, he said that they are losing so many fighters in the south of Lebanon because they have been calculating their move on that front very carefully in order not to give Israel any kind of reason to launch an all-out war.

However, he said that, if Israel were to drag us into this war, the response is going to be great, and there will be no limits to this response. And he said Israel will know what I mean.

Amna Nawaz:

Randa, what does that mean to you when they say if Israel was to drag us into that war? What line do you think needs to be crossed?

Randa Slim:

You know, there are sublines that are getting crossed every day. And I think, like today, there are unconfirmed reports yet of a senior Hezbollah commander has been targeted and killed in Naqoura in south of Lebanon. I think more of this kind of assassination targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, especially in Beirut's southern suburbs, is, I think, the red line that Hezbollah will not tolerate.

Arouri was a Hamas member, was a Palestinian. Despite the fact that he was killed and assassinated in Hezbollah's security perimeter, in Beirut's southern suburbs, I still think this is not a major red line for Hezbollah. However, Nasrallah said in his speech, his assassination will not go without response.

But, of course, very much in line with their modus operandi, he did not, of course, say anything about what kind of response and when that response will happen.

Amna Nawaz:

We should point out Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility for the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, but they have repeatedly said they will go after Hamas leadership wherever they are.

Do you see the possibility of Israel carrying out targeted assassinations in other countries, like Turkey or Qatar, where we know Hamas leadership live?

Randa Slim:

The intelligence services in Turkey have already issued a warning to Israel not to carry out the assassination their territory.

I think it's going to be a little bit difficult for Israel to do it on Qatari territory, especially as they need Qatar's mediation in the hostage file between them and Hamas, at least until all hostages are released, all Israeli hostages are released.

I think they will continue to target them in Lebanon. But after al-Arouri's assassination, Hamas leaders might either leave Lebanon or will take extra security precautions.

I think the fear — the fact that the assassination happened in Beirut's southern suburbs also raises a lot of concerns about the security of Hezbollah leaders who live and work in that area as well.

Amna Nawaz:

That is Randa Slim, director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute, joining us from Beirut.

Randa, thank you so much. Good to see you.

Randa Slim:

Thank you very much.