Axis Bank Q4 Preview: PAT seen at Rs 6,305 crore vs YoY loss on higher interest income

Nuvama

Nuvama sees the company's PAT at Rs 6,500 crore for the reporting quarter up by 7% versus Rs 6,070 crore in Q3FY24. The NII is estimated at Rs 12,930 crore in Q4FY24 versus Rs 11,740 in Q4FY23, higher by 10%. Sequentially, its is expected to go up by 3% against Rs 12,530 crore in Q3FY24.

Growth for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, is seen at Rs 10,67,200 crore versus 946,900 crore in quarter ended March 31, 2023, up 13% YoY. Sequentially it is likely to be 6% higher from Rs 10,04,900 crore in Q3FY23.

Loans for the said quarter are estimated at Rs 9,69,600 crore, up 15% over Rs 8,45,300 crore in Q3FY24. On the QoQ basis they are seen to grow by over 4% versus Rs 9,32,300 crore reported in Q3FY24. Q4FY24 net ineterst margins (NIMs) is estimated at 4.02% versus 4.01% in Q3FY24.

The bank is expected to have reported provisions of Rs 660 crore versus 310 crore in the year-ago period. It will be a jump of 116% on a YoY basis but will be down by 36% versus Rs 1030 crore in Q3FY24.

Slippages are expected to remain at Rs 3,800 crore, which will be a 13% jump over Rs 3,720 crore reported in the corresponding period of the last financial year. It will be up 2% on a sequential basis versus Rs 3,380 crore in Q3FY24.

Nuvama has a buy rating on the Axis Bank stock.

Anand Rathi

Anand Rathi also recommended a buy rating on the counter. According its its estimates, NII will likely be at Rs 13,138.30 crore, up 14% YoY and 4.8% QoQ. For the full year, NII is estimated at Rs 49,943.70 crore, up by 16.3% YoY. As for the net profit, Rs 6,120.50 crore is expected in the reporting quarter. The sequential growth in PAT is expected to be around 0.8%. For FY24, PAT is estimated at Rs 23,852.20 crore, up by 8.1% YoY.

Sharekhan

According to Sharekhan's estimates, the private lender is expected to report NII at 12,764 for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, an 8.7% YoY% and 1.9% QoQ gain. The PAT for the reporting quarter is seen to remain at Rs 6,284 crore, down by 5.1% from Rs 6,625 crore reported in the year-ago period. On a QoQ basis, it's seen to be higher by 3.5% over Rs 6,071 crore in the previous quarter.

The pre provision operating profit (PPoP) is expected to go up by 0.5% for the reported quarter at Rs 9,212 crore versus Rs 9,168 crore in the corresponding period of the last financial year. On a sequential basis, an uptick of 0.8% is seen over Rs 9,141 in Q3FY24.

Sharekhan expects bank's NIMs to decline Q-o-Q by 8-10 bps while loan growth is expected at 15% Y-o-Y. The key monitorable would be growth outlook and trend in NIMs, this brokerage said.

It has given a buy rating ahead of the results.

Phillip Capital

PC estimates Q4FY24 NII at 12,871.90 crore, 9.6% higher on a YoY basis while 2.7% on a QoQ basis. The PAT for the reporeted quarter is seen at Rs 6,317.40 crore. The NIM is expected to decline on a YoY basis to 3.94% 4.22% in the same period of the last financial period.

This brokerage sees gross NPA (GNPA) at 1.4% for the reporting quarter down from 2% in Q4FY23. The advances are set to grow by 16.6% to Rs 9,85,893 crore at the end of March 31, 2024.

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