Lok Sabha polls phase 2: Low turnout at Gautam Buddha Nagar, Ghaziabad as urban voters skip polling process

Provisional figures shared by Election Commission of India (ECI) at 10pm revealed that the GB Nagar seat had recorded a voter turnout of 53.21%, while the Ghaziabad seat had logged an abysmal turnout of 49.65%. In comparison, GB Nagar recorded a voter turnout of 60.47% in 2019 and 60.38% in 2014, while Ghaziabad recorded a turnout of 55.86% in 2019 and 56.94% in 2014.

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There were 15 candidates in the fray at GB Nagar — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fielded incumbent MP Dr Mahesh Sharma, the Samajwadi Party (SP) nominated Dr Mahendra Nagar, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) picked Rajendra Solanki to contest from the seat. Meanwhile, 14 candidates contested the elections in Ghaziabad, including Ghaziabad MLA Atul Garg, who was fielded by the BJP, Dolly Sharma from the Congress, and BSP's pick Nandkishor Pundhir.

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The GB Nagar seat is made up of Noida, Dadri, and Jewar in GB Nagar district, and Sikandrabad and Khurja in Bulandshahr district, and has 2,675,148 registered voters. Of these voters, around 50% are from the urban areas of Noida and Greater Noida, with the latter falling in the Dadri segment. However, the ECI provisional figures revealed that these two urban segments of Noida and Dadri logged a turnout of only 46.48% and 52.60%, respectively — much lower than the turnouts in Jewar (55.04%), Khurja (59.12%) and Sikandrabad (60%) at 10pm, respectively.

Leaders of various parties said the turnout is likely to impact the prospects of the candidates, especially that of BJP's Sharma, who has a large support in urban areas. "There are two reasons for low polling in 2024 — one is the Rajput community's anger towards the ruling dispensation over their alleged lack of representation in ticket distribution, and a number of issues in urbans areas related to infrastructure that have remained unresolved over the last ten years," said political analyst Atul Thakur.

The BSP and SP also felt that low polling means people are against the BJP regime in the state and Centre.

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"BJP got the maximum votes from Dadri and Noida in the past, and if the polling is low, it means that those BJP supporters no more trust the regime. People in the rural areas of Jewar, Khurja and Sikandrabad have voted with zeal, signalling that we are winning this seat by a huge margin," said Lakhmi Singh, BSP's Meerut division co-ordinator.

SP national spokesperson Pradeep Bhati said low polling is not confined to Gautam Budh Nagar alone -- the seats that went to polls under both phase I and phase this time have recorded low voting. "The low polling in the 2024 general election is a clear sign that people are highly disappointed with the BJP. After ten years, people have realised that they only know to make promises and not fulfil them. As a result, people in distress did not come to vote in urban areas," said Bhati. When asked whether his supporters were upset with him, Sharma said, "We do not think that people are angry with us. Our party has done what we had promised. If you look at the data, then you will notice that the number of voters has also increased. It means even if there is 5 or 10 percentage points drop in turnout polling, more people would have still supported us."

The Ghaziabad seat is made up of five segments — Loni, Muradnagar, Sahibabad, Ghaziabad and parts of Dhaulana— and has 2,941,624 registered voters. Of these, the two urban areas of Sahibabad and Ghaziabad performed poorly, logging a turnout of 42.57% and 47.86%, respectively, till 10pm.

The three remaining rural segments of Loni, Muradnagar and Dhaulana fared a bit better, recording turnouts of 54.09%, 53.80%, and 59.17%, respectively till 10pm, as per ECI's provisional figures. "The seat's low polling was largely due to low turnout of voters in city areas. The summer heat also factored in even though we had made proper arrangements at polling booths. We had tried our best to encourage and motivate voters. There were issues during polling and we had to change 17 ballot units, 40 control units and 107 VVPAT units in different segments," said additional district magistrate Ranvijay Singh.

The low turnout also disturbed the calculations of political parties and caught them by surprise.

"Since the turnout is low, we will carefully analyse the pattern with the help of report from our field workers," said Congress district president Vinit Tyagi.

"A general sense also prevailed among voters who were not enthusiastic to come out and vote. Our core vote bank however stepped out in large numbers and people also voted for us in rural segments," said BSP district president Dayaram Sain.

The BJP candidate was however hopeful of a "record win" even after a low turnout.

"Even with low voter turnout, I am expecting about 60-70% votes in our favour. The turnout may show low percentage, but in terms of number of voters as compared to previous election, the number of voters coming out to vote has increased," said BJP candidate Garg.

Experts said the low turnout was a matter of concern. "Voters who did not come out to vote may hurt the prospects of BJP, Congress and even the BSP, especially if these set of voters are core voters of any party," said KK Sharma, associate professor (history) from CCS University, Meerut.