Low polling upsets political parties' calculations in Gautam Budh Nagar

Various party leaders said the low turnout is likely to impact the prospects of the 15 candidates in the fray in Gautam Budh Nagar, especially that of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate and two-time sitting MP Dr Mahesh Sharma, whose maximum votes usually come from urban areas as compared to his rivals both in 2014 and 2019.

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The Gautam Budh Nagar seat, when it was carved out from Bulandshahr district in 2009, recorded the lowest polling of 48.54%. The present polling percentage of 52.46 (till 7pm) is almost 8 percentage points less than that of 2019, when it stood at 60.4%. In 2014, the constituency recorded 60.38% polling, as per the ECI data.

In urban segments of Dadri and Noida, the polling remained around 50% while in rural areas of Khurja, Jewar and Sikandrabad, voting remained around 60%, till 7pm.

Political analysts said the reduction in polling in both urban and rural segments is a sign that the voters are disenchanted with the incumbent regime.

"There are two reasons for low polling in 2024 -- one is the Rajput community's anger right from the start of general elections towards the ruling dispensation. It created a negative atmosphere in general. Rajputs are considered the traditional supporters of BJP at this seat, but when the agitation in western UP started, it also impacted this seat and surely affected the polling turnout. Another reason is that urban voters are no more happy with the ruling party as they feel that many issues have remained unresolved in the last ten years," said Atul Thakur, political analyst.

Khurja, Jewar and Sikandrabad segments, which are strongholds of Rajputs, have recorded a 5 percentage points reduction in polling as compared to previous years. The urban areas of Noida and Dadri, where BJP always have performed better, have witnessed a 10 percentage points reduction in polling as compared to 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

When asked whether his supporters were upset with him, BJP candidate Dr Mahesh Sharma said, "We do not think that people are angry with us. Our party has done what we had promised. If you look at the data, then you will notice that the number of voters has also increased. It means that even if there is 5 or 10 percentage points less polling, more people would have still supported us."

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) feel that low polling means people are against the BJP regime in the state and also at the centre.

"The low polling in Noida and Dadri means that the BJP supporters no longer like the way their governments are functioning. At Dadri and Noida, it is the BJP that got maximum votes in the past and if the polling is low then it means that those BJP supporters no more trust the BJP regime. Whereas people in rural areas of Jewar, Khurja and Sikandrabad have voted with zeal signalling that we are winning this seat by a huge margin," said Lakhmi Singh, BSP's Meerut division co-ordinator.

SP national spokesperson Pradeep Bhati said low polling is not confined to Gautam Budh Nagar alone -- the seats that went to polls under both phase I and phase this time have recorded low voting.

"The low polling in the 2024 general election is a clear sign that people are highly disappointed with the BJP. After ten years, people have realised that they only know to make promises and not fulfil them. As a result, people in distress did not come to vote in urban areas," said Bhati.

The Gautam Budh Nagar seat is made up of five segments — Noida, Dadri, and Jewar in GB Nagar district, and Sikandrabad and Khurja in Bulandshahr district, and has 2,675,148 registered voters. At least 50 percent of 2,675,148 registered voters are residing in urban centres of Noida and Greater Noida that is part of Dadri.

The election commission officials said the low polling could also be because of polling say being a Friday, which essentially gives people a chance to enjoy a long weekend. The soaring heat also played a role in keeping people indoors, they said.