Netanyahu Promises Rafah Attack 'With or Without a Deal'

Welcome back to World Brief, where we're looking at the latest posturing around Israel's possible offensive on Rafah, two major cases at the International Court of Justice, and maritime tensions in the South China Sea.

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Promised Rafah Assault

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged on Tuesday to launch an incursion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah "with or without a deal," referring to ongoing cease-fire negotiations, in order to secure "total victory" over Hamas. "The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question," he said.

The newest cease-fire proposal that Hamas is considering would establish a roughly 40-day truce and have the group exchange around 33 hostages being held in Gaza for numerous Palestinian prisoners. Israel lowered the number of hostages that it is demanding be released from 40 people, partly in recognition that some have likely died in captivity. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday to continue talks.

Senior Israeli officials, including Foreign Minister Israel Katz, previously hinted that Israel would shelve plans to attack Rafah if a cease-fire agreement was reached. But Netanyahu appears to have conceded to demands from far-right members of his cabinet to carry out the operation. On Saturday, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to withdraw from Netanyahu's government if Israel does not invade Rafah. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich expressed similar sentiments on Tuesday, saying a "government that submits to international pressure, stops the war in the middle, avoids immediate entry into Rafah, and returns to Egyptian mediation proposals that leave Hamas existing in any configuration will at that moment lose its right to exist."

Foreign leaders continue to warn Israel against launching an offensive in Rafah, where more than half of Gaza's 2.3 million residents are currently sheltering. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said on Monday that an invasion would cause the "biggest catastrophe in the Palestinian people's history." U.S. President Joe Biden "reiterated his clear position" on the operation during a phone call with Netanyahu on Sunday, according to a White House readout. The readout did not elaborate on that position, but the White House has previously said it would not support a ground offensive in Rafah absent a credible Israeli plan for evacuating the estimated 1.5 million people there.

Also during Sunday's phone call, Netanyahu reportedly asked Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) from issuing arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials connected to the war in Gaza. The ICC prosecutor's office is under pressure from nongovernmental organizations and several member nations to issue warrants against Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi.

"Under my leadership, Israel will never accept any attempt by the ICC to undermine its inherent right of self-defense," Netanyahu wrote on X last Friday. Three years ago, the ICC launched an investigation into possible war crimes by both Israeli and Palestinian forces dating back to the 2014 war in Gaza. Neither Israel nor the United States recognize the ICC's jurisdiction.

Meanwhile, Hamas and Fatah officials met in Beijing for "in-depth and candid talks on promoting intra-Palestinian reconciliation," Chinese authorities said on Tuesday. Fatah is the political party that controls the Palestinian Authority (PA), which nominally governs parts of the West Bank; U.S. officials have previously suggested that the PA could help govern postwar Gaza. Both parties convened in Russia in February but did not achieve any progress toward a unified government, with Fatah demanding that Hamas dismantle its armed wing and Hamas refusing to do so.

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What We're Following

Two ICJ hearings. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) rejected Nicaragua's request on Tuesday to order Germany to stop supplying Israel with military aid and to resume funding for the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA). Around 30 percent of Israel's military equipment purchases came from Germany in 2023, and Germany was one of 15 Western nations to suspend UNRWA funding over allegations that some staff members were involved in Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Last week, Berlin announced that it would resume cooperating with UNRWA.

The 16-judge panel ruled in a 15-1 vote that the legal conditions to order such provisional measures were not met. However, the ICJ did not dismiss the case entirely, as Germany requested. Instead, it is allowing arguments on both sides to be heard regarding whether Berlin is facilitating the commission of genocide in Gaza by giving arms support to Israel. The court remains concerned about "catastrophic living conditions" in Gaza, particularly "the prolonged and widespread deprivation of food and other basic necessities," ICJ President Nawaf Salam said. The case could take years to conclude.

The ICJ also began preliminary hearings on Tuesday for Mexico's case against Ecuador. On April 5, Ecuadorian forces stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas—who was convicted of corruption—just hours after Mexico City offered him political asylum. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador condemned the raid as a violation of Mexico's sovereignty and asked the ICJ to determine whether Ecuador should be suspended from the U.N. In turn, Quito filed a complaint against Mexico on Monday for granting asylum to a disgraced former leader.

China targets Philippine ships. The Philippines accused the Chinese coast guard on Tuesday of harassing and damaging two of its boats in the South China Sea. The vessels were en route to the Scarborough Shoal to assist fishermen in the area when Beijing targeted them with water cannons. No injuries were reported.

Both Manila and Beijing claim sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal as well as other contested areas of the South China Sea. China's coast guard said it expelled the Philippine vessels for "intruding" into its waters, whereas the Philippines condemned what it called China's "dangerous maneuvers" against its ships. Similar incidents have occurred across the South China Sea in recent weeks, forcing the Philippines, the United States, and Japan to convene a trilateral summit earlier this month to address rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

Sanctions violation. U.N. sanctions monitors concluded that debris from a missile that landed in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Jan. 2 was from a North Korean Hwasong-11 series ballistic missile, Reuters reported on Monday.

In a 32-page report made to a U.N. Security Council committee, the monitors said the information that they received from Ukraine indicated that the missile was fired from within Russian territory, suggesting that it had been procured by Russian nationals; if so, that would constitute a violation of a 2006 U.N. arms embargo on Pyongyang, which prohibits both the export of weapons to and the import of weapons from North Korea.

In February, Washington accused Russia of using North Korean-supplied ballistic missiles on Ukraine in at least nine incidents. Both Moscow and Pyongyang denied the U.S. allegations.

Odds and Ends

Japan's Environment Ministry knows a thing or two about the dangers of being hangry. Last week, the department warned locals to stay alert for bears emerging from hibernation, saying they are "in a bad mood" and "not keen to hang out with humans." A record 219 people were attacked by bears in Japan in fiscal year 2023. If a monthslong nap didn't cure them, maybe it's time for a Snickers bar.