How the Stars advanced, and why they might keep going

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Now that the series between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights is complete, it's time to register a complaint: It should've been played in the second round. One elite team beating another this early is always a bit of a bummer.

The Stars, though, aren't going to make any apologies. With a 2-1 Game 7 win over the Golden Knights, they got a measure of revenge for last season's loss in the Western Conference final. They also came back from a 2-0 series deficit for the first time in franchise history.

On to the next one. The Stars are facing the Colorado Avalanche in a second-round series that, go figure, could double as a conference final — and they've got the mix necessary to come out on top.

Wyatt Johnston is a rising Star

After a solid rookie season, Johnston looked his age against the Golden Knights last spring. Not only was he held off the scoresheet in last year's series, but Vegas outscored the Stars 5-0 and controlled play when Johnston was on the ice.

Johnston rebounded from that with a breakout regular season. He's helped the Stars shed their top-heavy identity and bolstered their depth with reliable secondary scoring. In 82 regular-season games, he scored 65 points, primarily earned at five-on-five. The Stars were a better team in his minutes, thanks to his volume shooting and ability to drive right to the scoring areas even against top defenders. And this year, that difference-making play carried into the playoffs.

After a solid start in Games 1 and 2, where he attempted 17 shots, 10 of which qualified as scoring chances per Natural Stat Trick, Johnston became the difference-maker the Stars needed. Dallas outshot Vegas 30-15 with him on the ice. Fourteen of those attempts came off Johnston's stick, and two beat Logan Thompson in key moments: the opening goal of the game and the overtime game winner.

In Game 7, Johnston notched his fourth goal and seventh point of the series to get the Stars on the board. All together through Round 1, he elevated Dallas to earn almost 69 percent of the expected goals share while outscoring Vegas 5-3. At five-on-five, Johnston created 33 scoring chances, which leads all skaters through Round 1 — that's 34 percent of what the Stars generated in his minutes, a lopsided 77-45 chances over Vegas.

An elite core is the star ingredient to creating a Stanley Cup. But a team needs a strong supporting cast and cost-effective contracts to balance out pricier ones. Johnston's bringing both and he's just getting started.

Jake Oettinger has arrived

In October, Jake Oettinger was one of the main reasons to believe in the Stars as true Cup contenders. What, exactly, were we supposed to dislike about the guy? He was 24 years old and had gotten progressively better in each of his three NHL seasons. He'd followed a star turn in a 2022 playoff loss to Calgary with a .919 save percentage and more than 21 goals saved above expected, eighth-best in the league in 2022-23.

That's part of what made his uneven regular-season performance such a surprise; at certain points, he seemed more like a reason to bet against the Stars than bet on them. After the trade deadline, though, he locked in, putting up a .924 save percentage and saving more than five goals above expected. Like we said in our series preview — if that's what Dallas could expect from him in the playoffs, look out.

Lo and behold, that's what they got. Oettinger posted a .925 save percentage against Vegas. Of the 14 goals he allowed, just 10 came in the final six games. He showed a particular knack for locking things down as games progressed and stopped 21 of the 22 shots he faced in Game 7.

If he keeps that up, Oettinger won't just give Dallas an edge in net over Colorado; he'll give them an edge over most of their potential opponents.

Robertson and Hintz aren't shining … yet

Those middle-six contributions for Dallas were clutch in Round 1 because the top line hasn't played to their usual star potential.

Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski have set a high bar. They've been a staple at the top of the Stars' lineup for the last 3 1/2 years for good reason. The line brings a little bit of everything between each player's skill set that helps them click.

That hasn't been the case just yet in the playoffs. Through seven games against the Golden Knights, that top line only mustered 41 percent of the expected goals share and was outscored 1-0.

Robertson at least earned 5 points in Round 1, while Hintz is a bit of a red flag at just 1. But this isn't the level the Stars should expect moving forward. There are two things working in Dallas' favor: It isn't as if these players wilt in a postseason environment, and they have proof otherwise from the last few seasons.

Plus, the coaches know there are other combinations to mix and match if needed. Moving Johnston to the top line helped unlock Roberston and Hintz in Game 1, while Pavelski worked with Jamie Benn and Johnston in Game 7. Dallas has a versatile lineup, so with the right tweaks the Stars should be able to stack up better to Colorado's best.

DeBoer's rotation of 5 defensemen worked

Pete DeBoer's Game 7 record stays sparkling, and one deployment decision stands out: limiting Nils Lundkvist's minutes and basically rotating only five defensemen.

In Round 1 Lundkvist played only 31:42, or 4:31 on average per game in all situations. In total, that's only about four minutes more than Heiskanen's 27:26 average ice time through seven games.

And in Game 7, it was clear exactly why the coaches felt they had to shelter him. A costly mistake contributed to Brett Howden's tying goal, which could have opened the door to Vegas winning this series.

While Lundkvist adds an element of skill to the Stars' blue line, he has also been a liability at times — even in super-sheltered usage. That explains why he barely played in Game 7 (or much at all after going down 0-2 in the series) and why the coaches will have to be ultra-careful against Colorado. The Avalanche have so much speed and skill that someone like Lundkvist could easily be exposed.

For now, the decision looks smart. But the deeper the Stars go, the more they may need to share the burden on defense to avoid burning out some of their best players.

Good job, old guys

Are Benn and Tyler Seguin worth a combined cap hit of more than $19 million? Not in 2024. Both, though, have found a way to contribute, and Dallas' outlook would be a whole lot uglier if they were dragging the overall operation.

They're not Dallas' best skaters — that honor belongs to Heiskanen, Johnston and the top line. They're certainly not cost-effective, either. Against Vegas, though, Benn was second on the Stars in all-situations scoring chances with 21 and brought plenty of physicality to the proceedings. Seguin was tied for fourth in overall scoring chances with 16. On high-danger chances, only Johnston had more than his 11.

They're not what they used to be. That doesn't mean they aren't good enough to help. Given how much Colorado is getting from second-layer players like Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen, Dallas will need continued production from its vets.

GO DEEPER

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(Photo: Matthew Pearce / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)