Original source (on modern site)
I like the analogy of AI as a "co-pilot." Microsoft largely popularized this model — now branding all of their AI tools as "Copilot," from GitHub to a new "Copilot" key that is even part of the PC keyboard. But it will be interesting to see how the role of "co" in the "co-pilot" model evolves, particularly as AI tools tools continue to advance so quickly. Just last week, Meta released Llama 3 and OpenAI's release of GPT-5 is expected soon. No one really knows exactly how AI will impact the future of work. Will AI tools serve more as enablers or replacers? And for which tasks, careers, and organizations? MIT recently conducted the first controlled experiment into the productivity of AI in software — a lead case in AI adoption. They found that Github coders complete their work 55% quicker with AI. And half of all code produced by users of Github Copilot is already AI-generated. But who will reap the benefits of 55% productivity gains? And ultimately will it result in more meaningful work? The IMF predicted a few months ago that 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be impacted by AI. They rated jobs in two main categories — "high complementarity" and "low complementarity" to AI. They forecast that jobs with "high complementarity" to AI would be positively affected by AI and jobs with "low complementarity" would be negatively affected. The IMF predicted roughly half of jobs would fall into each category. Figuring out the right way to complement human and AI work will take time and experimentation. Another AI analogy I find interesting is the "centaur" model, popularized by Garry Kasparov. Garry is the chess grandmaster who lost to IBM's Big Blue in 1997 in the most famous human versus machine match-up. Instead of retiring from chess entirely, he formed a new human-machine team he called Centaurs, believing that a team that combines human and computer skills could out-perform either alone. Brian Westover at PCMag said this last year: "In the long run, the centaur wins. And, at that point, you need to decide whether you'll be the human at the front—or the one looking at the horse's rear end." Here are a few related cartoons I've drawn over the years: