3 Twins takeaways: MVPs of The Streak, missing on Margot, Jeffers vs. MGarver

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MINNEAPOLIS — After a dozen consecutive victories, the second-longest winning streak in Minnesota Twins history ended Sunday with a lopsided loss to the Boston Red Sox at Target Field.

Losing for the first time since April 21 stings, but the Twins still took two out of three games from the Red Sox for their fourth straight series win and now sit at 19-14 after an ugly 7-13 start to the season.

In the span of two weeks, the Twins cut the Cleveland Guardians' lead in the American League Central from eight games to 2 1/2 games, increased their postseason odds from 34 percent to 71 percent and improved from having the league's third-worst record to being in line for a playoff spot.

They'll look to start a new streak against old friends Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver, with the first-place Seattle Mariners coming to town for a four-game series starting Monday.

But first, here are three Twins takeaways after three games versus the Red Sox.

MVPs of The Streak

Now that the streak is over — three games shy of the 1991 club's all-time team record — which players did the most to help the Twins get 12 wins in a row?

Win Probability Added attempts to measure that by calculating how each play in a game changed a team's expected winning percentage, with the caveat that it includes hitting and pitching but not fielding.

Here are the 12 highest individual WPA totals over the 12-game streak:

(Keep in mind, "average" is a much higher baseline than the "replacement level" used in WAR, since a team full of average players would go 81-81 per season.)

Max Kepler was probably the MVP of the Twins' streak, adding more than a full win compared to an average player according to WPA. Kepler came off the injured list the day the streak started and played 11 of the 12 games, hitting .400/.463/.629 with two homers and 11 RBIs, seemingly all of which put the Twins ahead. He went 7-for-15 (.467) with runners in scoring position.

"All the difference," manager Rocco Baldelli said of Kepler. "He came back and he started shooting line drives all over the field, driving runs in. He's been a big part of what's been going on offensively for us, and we're still getting the good defense from him. You see it come together like it did in the second half of last year. And now we're seeing second-half Kep in April and May."

Kepleround the bases‼️ pic.twitter.com/wGC6PZKU72

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) May 4, 2024

Byron Buxton missed the streak's final two and a half games with knee problems, but he managed to make a big impact before going on the IL. In fact, without Buxton's game-tying homer off Chicago White Sox reliever Steven Wilson in the ninth inning on April 23, the streak may not have been a streak at all. That led to the second of 12 straight wins, and Buxton hit .348 during the streak.

Willi Castro (.440/.451/.720) and Ryan Jeffers (.366/.449/.659) led the Twins' regulars in OPS during the streak, combining for 18 RBIs and 17 runs scored in 12 games and coming through with multiple clutch hits apiece. As a whole, the Twins' lineup batted .308/.377/.514 during the streak, scoring 7.0 runs per game. Prior to the streak, the Twins hit .195 and scored 3.4 runs per game.

Griffin Jax was nails out of the bullpen during the streak, making six scoreless appearances in a high-leverage role to record a win, two saves and three holds. Opponents went 1-for-16 (.057) with seven strikeouts versus Jax, who also stranded four of the five runners he inherited, preserving the ERAs of Steven Okert and Cole Sands in the process.

Chris Paddack was the best starter over the streak. He shut out the White Sox for seven innings to kick off everything on April 22 and shut out the Red Sox for six innings for the 11th win on May 3, with a mediocre outing against the Los Angeles Angels in between. Collectively, the Twins got a 3.49 ERA from the rotation and a 2.41 ERA from the bullpen during the streak.

Not measured by WPA: Sausage power. Cured meat magic isn't quantifiable.

Missing on Manuel Margot

When the Twins traded for Manuel Margot in late February, the expectation was that he'd replace Michael A. Taylor as the backup center fielder, a key role given Buxton's injury history. Sure enough, someone other than Buxton started 13 of the first 33 games in center field, and that total will grow in the coming weeks, but zero of those starts went to Margot.

Instead, the Twins have turned to Austin Martin, a rookie converted infielder, and Castro, a super-utility man, as the fill-in center fielders. Margot has logged a grand total of four innings in center field all season and it's been more than a month since he's played the position. On the day the Twins put Buxton on the shelf, Baldelli didn't even mention Margot as one of the replacement options.

Margot is 29 years old, with more than 500 games and 4,000 innings as a big-league center fielder, but within weeks of acquiring him it was clear the Twins considered him no higher than fourth on the depth chart there behind Buxton, Castro and Martin. It's also possible they might even turn to Triple-A speedster DaShawn Keirsey Jr. over Margot if more help is needed in center field.

Margot has made a career out of good speed and defense, but his fielding stats have crashed even while limited to corner spots and his sprint speed plummeted to the 44th percentile after being in the 75th percentile last season. If the Twins had any inkling Margot would lose a step (or steps) this rapidly and be deployed strictly as a corner outfielder, they likely never would have targeted him.

Without the ability to play a solid center field, Margot loses the majority of his value. He's a career .258/.308/.382 hitter, which is nowhere near enough thump for a corner outfielder. It also looks like he may have lost a step offensively. After going 0-for-3 and grounding into a double play Sunday, he's batting .172 with a career-high 23 percent strikeout rate in 28 games.

What do you even say to this man???????? pic.twitter.com/EiFEg6FfXR

— Josh #PabloforCy2024 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️🇵🇸 (@FestaFanatic) May 5, 2024

Ryan Jeffers versus Mitch Garver

Ryan Jeffers circles the bases after homering on Sunday. (Matt Krohn / USA Today)

Before the 2022 season, the Twins made a tough decision by trading Garver and committing to Jeffers at catcher. Garver hit .256/.358/.517 in 2021, but he was 31 years old and increasingly having difficulty staying healthy behind the plate. Jeffers was 25 and, despite hitting just .199 in 2021, the Twins believed he had the potential to be one of the best all-around catchers in the league.

Three years later, there's no doubt they made the right call. Garver played well for the Texas Rangers last season and won a World Series ring, but he's off to a brutal start with the Mariners, hitting .156 in 28 games. He also hasn't played a single inning at catcher since last Sept. 3, transitioning to full-time designated hitter in the first season of a two-year, $24 million contract.

Jeffers has also seen semi-regular DH action, but that's because the Twins can't take his hot bat out of the lineup. He's hitting .291/.375/.563 after ripping his sixth homer Sunday and an extra-base hit in all three Red Sox games. Paddack also heaped praise on Jeffers' work behind the plate Friday. He leads the Twins in WAR and WPA, and leads MLB catchers in OPS since Opening Day 2023.

(Top photo of Max Kepler and Willi Castro in 2023: Cole Burston / Getty Images)