Macklin Celebrini NHL lottery breakdown: Which team deserves the No. 1 pick? Where would he fit on each?

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As the second round of the playoffs opens, there are still eight teams alive with Stanley Cup aspirations.

That leaves 24 teams sitting in their respective cities with nothing to play for until the regular season opens again in the fall. But 16 of those teams will have their competitive juices flowing one more time on Tuesday evening when the NHL draft lottery takes place, where the non-playoff teams are entered into a drawing to determine the order of selection for this June's NHL draft in Vegas.

The lottery rules were amended in 2022 to allow teams to only jump up a maximum of 10 spots in the order. That means 11 teams have a chance to land the first overall pick on Tuesday, which would grant them the right to select consensus No. 1 prospect Macklin Celebrini.

Celebrini's arrival in those 11 cities could alter their trajectory in the years to come.

GO DEEPER

How does Macklin Celebrini compare to recent No. 1 NHL Draft picks? Scouts, execs weigh in

So where would Celebrini fit on the opening night roster? Would his arrival help push the team into the window of playoff contention? And which of these 11 teams believe they deserve some lottery luck on Tuesday night?

As a primer ahead of the lottery, The Athletic asked a handful of writers to tackle these questions and look at the odds for each to end up with the No. 1 overall selection.

San Jose Sharks

What are the odds? 25.5 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? The Sharks have never drafted first overall. The last time they picked as high as second overall was in 1997 when they drafted Patrick Marleau.

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? Let's see, the Sharks scored only 180 goals. Only Chicago scored fewer. Their leading point producer, Mikael Granlund, had 60. They had eight double-digit goal scorers but only one, Fabian Zetterlund, went north of 20. Two of them, Tomáš Hertl and Anthony Duclair, were dealt at the deadline. This roster could well be paper-thin once again. With the way he dominated college hockey, Celebrini wouldn't look out of place on San Jose's top line.

Who are his most likely linemates? It might depend on whether Logan Couture is healthy enough to return next season but why not have Celebrini start building chemistry with Zetterlund and William Eklund? It doesn't seem like Will Smith is ready to leave Boston College so dropping him in between the team's best wingers makes the most sense at the start. Zetterlund has a terrific shot and Eklund came on in the second half as a dual scoring/playmaking threat.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? It is going to be a while with or without Celebrini, but let's nudge this toward the optimistic. How about 2027-28? That'll give Mike Grier and Co. four seasons to get it together.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? It is too good of a storyline. His father, Rick, is the director of sports medicine and performance for the NBA's Golden State Warriors. Macklin might be Canadian and a product of North Vancouver, but he was cooking for the Jr. Sharks 14U AAA team before heading to Shattuck-St. Mary's. Rick is openly rooting for San Jose to win the lottery. Let's not forget that the Sharks have never drafted No. 1 overall. They would be set for the future with Celebrini and Smith as their top two centers. One player is not going to change things overnight and San Jose has a long way to go. But a proud franchise and fan base that suffered through a horrid season deserves to rally around a new star with Bay Area ties. — Eric Stephens

It's hard to argue that the Blackhawks deserve Celebrini after winning the right to draft Connor Bedard first overall last year. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

Chicago Blackhawks

What are the odds? 13.5 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? 2023 (Connor Bedard)

Would Celebrini make your opening night roster and where would he play? Celebrini would almost definitely play for the Blackhawks next season. He'd probably center the second or third line.

Who are his most likely linemates? The Blackhawks were probably going to get a new linemate or two for Bedard this offseason. If they drafted Celebrini, the Blackhawks would likely be motivated to bring in a few more capable top-six veterans. Taylor Hall would definitely be one option among the current players.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? The Blackhawks are still a number of years away from contending. With as many young players as they're bringing in at the same time, they're probably still 2-4 years away from being a contender.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? It's hard to argue that the Blackhawks deserve Celebrini after getting lucky with Bedard last year and considering the run they had with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. I'm staying away from this question. — Scott Powers

Anaheim Ducks

What are the odds? 11.5 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? The Ducks have never drafted first overall. They did select Leo Carlsson second overall in last year's draft.

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? That is a good question. General manager Pat Verbeek has sent out mixed vibes when it comes to the development of his best young talent. Verbeek has talked about keeping players in the minors for longer periods, but he had top-10 picks Leo Carlsson and Pavel Mintyukov in Anaheim as rookies. Mason McTavish also skipped past the American Hockey League. The Ducks have Carlsson and McTavish as their top two centers and they still have Trevor Zegras, who prefers the middle over the wing. Unless you play him in the AHL for a bit, the best spot would be to ease Celebrini in on the third line. Give him some solid minutes but don't overwhelm him right off the bat.

Who are his most likely linemates? That would be an interesting task for second-year coach Greg Cronin. Carlsson played a lot with Alex Killorn and Troy Terry. McTavish often had veterans Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on his wings. Zegras played with a mixture when he was healthy in an injury-plagued season. Add in Cutter Gauthier joining full-time next season and Verbeek's desire to get a top-six wing, most likely on the right side. The more I think about it, I'm liking Celebrini to start with Vatrano and Strome on the third line or perhaps Killorn on a wing if Gauthier, Vatrano and Zegras fill top-six spots.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? The Ducks will be expected to win more games next season after injuries, inconsistency and undisciplined play derailed any attempt to move forward. They might need to sort out their forward groupings, but this new core with a talented, fully rebuilt defense should be entering its prime in a couple years. Play meaningful games next spring and then make a major push in 2025-26.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? The Ducks are another team that hasn't had the No. 1 pick. They missed out on Sidney Crosby in 2005 when they took Bobby Ryan at No. 2. They should have had Connor Bedard last year given that they had the best odds to land him, though it appears they'll do quite well with Carlsson as a nice consolation prize. Landing Celebrini would round out a new core that Verbeek is assembling as he eyes eventual contention when his rebuild is finished. The pieces are in place for a potentially strong blue line — emphasis still on potential — and they would have high-quality youngsters to drive three forward lines. If they all hit, and it feels like Celebrini will, Anaheim could soon have an enviable group that's on the rise. — Eric Stephens

Columbus Blue Jackets

What are the odds? 9.5 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? 2002 (Rick Nash)

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? The Blue Jackets didn't have a problem throwing Adam Fantilli into the deep end last season, giving him roughly 15 minutes per night at the center ice position. But they've also played the long and patient game with other high-end prospects like Kent Johnson and David Jiricek. Columbus will have a new general manager calling the shots and he might determine whether it makes sense for Celebrini to crack the opening night roster.

Who are his most likely linemates? Fantilli had the luxury of playing with Johnny Gaudreau as his main winger last season and it helped the rookie center collect 12 goals and 27 points in 49 games before his injury. Among the top-six candidates heading into next season, Gaudreau, Kirill Marchenko and Laine are locks — assuming Laine returns to health. Yegor Chinakhov and Johnson are emerging talents with upside, while Alex Nylander could play a significant role after an impressive finish to the season that saw him score 11 times in 28 games. There would be options for Celebrini to play along at least one winger with 25-35-goal potential.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? The Jackets have not made the playoffs since 2020 and even Celebrini's arrival may not accelerate their growth to the point where the playoffs are realistic any time soon. Columbus has a .381 points percentage in the last two seasons combined, by far the worst in the Eastern Conference. In an ideal world, a core of Fantilli, Johnson, Jiricek, Cole Sillinger and Celebrini would be given a couple of years to mature together, with playoffs a possibility in 2026 or 2027.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? All you need to do is go back and re-read Aaron Portzline's story from late March about the chaotic and dysfunctional history of the Blue Jackets. This fan base has endured nothing but disappointment and agony since joining the NHL in 2000. And after Columbus PR staffer Lindy Noel donated a kidney to Portzline so he could undergo a transplant procedure last month, everybody in the hockey world should be pulling for a little good karma to go back to the Blue Jackets. — Ian Mendes

The Canadiens selected Juraj Slafkovsky first overall in 2022. (Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)

Montreal Canadiens

What are the odds? 8.5 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? 2022 (Juraj Slafkovsky)

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? Based on how the Canadiens incorporated Kirby Dach last season and Alex Newhook this season, they would in all likelihood start Celebrini on the wing to ease him into the NHL and slowly transition him back to the center position.

Who are his most likely linemates? Depending on whether the Canadiens bring in a winger to play in an offensive role this offseason, they could start Celebrini on the wing of a third line built around either Newhook or Christian Dvorak at center and perhaps Joel Armia on the opposite wing. Or they could put Celebrini with Dach on the second line with Newhook or perhaps Josh Anderson on the opposite wing.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? I'm not sure Celebrini would necessarily accelerate the Canadiens' timeline for Stanley Cup contention, but it would definitely solidify that timeline and remove some of the question marks around its viability. Right now, the Canadiens are probably looking at a contention window that opens in three years, which would make Celebrini 21. Sounds about right for a very young player to become acclimatized to the rigors of the NHL and ready to contribute in a meaningful way.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? The Canadiens had the No. 1 pick in 2022 at a draft they were hosting, so it's not as if they haven't had any lottery luck recently. But, the Canadiens did not openly tank this season, as opposed to the top contenders to land this pick, and the hockey gods should be rewarding that kind of behavior. — Arpon Basu

Utah

What are the odds? 7.5 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? This will be Utah's first season in the NHL, so this is technically their first draft. And while they inherited the hockey operations department and roster from the Coyotes, the history of that franchise stayed behind in Arizona. For the record, that Coyotes franchise did have the No. 1 overall selection once — when the original Winnipeg Jets drafted Dale Hawerchuk in 1981.

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? Celebrini might be able to slot in behind Logan Cooley, giving Utah a young and dynamic one-two punch down the middle. The team also has veteran centers in Nick Bjugstad and Alex Kerfoot who could provide a bit of insulation for Celebrini as needed, giving him a chance to start further down in the lineup.

Who are his most likely linemates? If Utah wants to put Celebrini in a position to succeed right away, they have a handful of productive wingers who could play alongside him. Clayton Keller has become a bona fide 30-goal scorer, while Lawson Crouse and Nick Schmaltz have each scored 20 goals in three straight seasons. Plus, Matias Maccelli has been a productive playmaking left winger in each of his two full seasons in the NHL. Dylan Guenther has the potential to be a high-end sniper, but since he's only 21 years old, it might be a bit too much to put him on the same line as Celebrini.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? The Coyotes were in the thick of the playoff race in the Western Conference until just before the All-Star break in February. That's when the relocation rumors started to pop up and the team went into a tailspin, dropping 14 straight games. If they add Celebrini to the mix, there is a chance this team could flirt with a playoff spot as early as next season.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? Has there been a group of players who endured more negativity and uncertainty than Utah's players over the past year? From constantly dealing with relocation rumors to playing for an outright dysfunctional franchise, these players deserve a fresh start in a new market. Landing the first overall pick and nabbing Celebrini would certainly add to the feel of a fresh start for a group of players who deserved a lot more support from ownership. Plus, adding Celebrini to a collection of talented, young prospects could help create a lot of excitement and buzz for the NHL in Utah in their inaugural season. — Ian Mendes

Ottawa Senators

What are the odds? 6.5 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? 1996 (Chris Phillips)

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? This would be a fascinating situation, considering center ice might be Ottawa's only position of strength. They already have Tim Stützle, Josh Norris and Shane Pinto, plus Ridly Greig who can play down the middle too. A lot of this could depend on Norris and if the Senators feel like moving him to the wing is an option. They've already done that at times with Greig. But at best, it would look like Celebrini would slot in as a No. 3 or No. 4 center on this team right now.

Who are his most likely linemates? If Celebrini is going to start down lower on Ottawa's depth chart, it probably means he won't have a chance to play with the most talented wingers like Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson. A player like Mathieu Joseph might make sense as a winger for Celebrini — a speedy winger with potential to open up the ice.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini?  I would imagine the Senators have playoff aspirations for as early as next season, so it's probably fair to say it would start in the 2024-25 season.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? The Senators traded away their first-round draft picks in each of the last two years, plus the NHL has stripped away another first-round pick for the Evgenii Dadonov trade fiasco. They have to forfeit that pick by 2026, which means the Senators are staring directly into a stretch where they won't have a first-round pick three times in five years. And none of that blame should fall on the new ownership group and managerial team. They inherited a mess. Add in a seven-year playoff drought, a 41-game gambling suspension for Pinto that came with a vague explanation and a prolonged sale process that was dragged out for months and you've got a pretty good recipe for why the Senators deserve some lottery luck. — Ian Mendes

Seattle Kraken

What are the odds? 6.0 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? The Kraken have only participated in three NHL drafts since joining the league for the 2021-22 season. Their highest pick in that window came in 2021 when they drafted Matthew Beniers second overall.

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? Seattle is without a head coach, so it's again hard to say without knowing their tendencies and how they handle young talent. The Kraken have been willing to take a more patient approach with young talent if they don't look ready to be exposed to NHL competition on a regular basis — take Shane Wright, who has been crushing it in Coachella Valley. There is a really strong AHL team to join if there are any concerns. On the other hand, there's the Beniers path of jumping right into NHL action. So there isn't one blueprint for how the Kraken handle their top talent. I think the most likely answer, even without knowing who their next head coach would be, is yes — and management would carefully analyze his next nine games to make sure that was the right call.

Who are his most likely linemates? With the Kraken making a coaching change, familiar combinations in Seattle could look different next season so it's tricky to say. Celebrini would likely slot behind Beniers on the depth chart and be somewhat sheltered in his usage, with someone like Yanni Gourde shouldering the workload behind him. Jaden Schwartz and Andre Burakovsky could make sense as his wingers.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? The Kraken could be a playoff team next season, but a true contender? Maybe if the young core has another year or two to cook, Seattle will have that star power they've been missing to reach that.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? The Kraken's offense wilted and knocked them out of playoff contention this year. They may not be the worst team in the NHL, but this is an up-and-coming franchise that could use some lottery luck to compete with the Western Conference contenders around them. It could be a reward for their measured, balanced approach versus Vegas' loud and splashy start. — Shayna Goldman

Calgary Flames

What are the odds? 5.0 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? Despite joining the NHL in 1972, the Flames have never had the first overall pick in the draft. Since they relocated to Calgary in 1980, they haven't even picked inside the top three overall spots. Sam Bennett, who was taken fourth overall in 2014, is their highest draft pick in Calgary.

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? Top-six center

Who are his most likely linemates? Jonathan Huberdeau has to be in that conversation. Not only could Celebrini serve as the high-end talent that could help revive their $10.5-million winger, but he is also the exact type of talent the Flames need for their retooling. Other possibilities include Andrei Kuzmenko and Yegor Sharangovich. Also, imagine a kid line of Connor Zary, Celebrini and Martin Pospisil? That would be fun, especially on Day 1 of a new season.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? 2025-26

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? The Flames desperately need gamebreakers to be taken seriously as a legitimate Cup contender, something they've lacked since Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk departed the franchise in the same offseason. The team has worked to accumulate assets in the wake of pending UFAs like Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev, Tyler Toffoli, Nikita Zadorov and Elias Lindholm being traded away. But they still need more higher-grade assets to help their team's timeline. — Julian McKenzie

Would Macklin Celebrini line up alongside Nico Hischier in New Jersey? (John Jones / USA Today)

New Jersey Devils

What are the odds? 3.5 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? 2019 (Jack Hughes)

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? The answer is most likely yes for the Devils, but it's tricky to know for sure when the coaching search is still ongoing. The best bet, without knowing the new coach's tendencies, would be yes, somewhere in the middle-six. There would be two options for New Jersey to explore: Letting him drive his own line as the team's third-line center or letting him acclimate alongside one of their elite top-six centers. Celebrini won't knock Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes out of position, but similar to Dawson Mercer, it could make sense for the Devils to shift him to wing to let him skate alongside their best players.

Who are his most likely linemates? If Celebrini shifts to wing to play in the top six, he could make sense alongside a two-way playmaker like Hischier. But if the new coach wants Hischier to match up against top competition, then welcome to Jack Hughes' wing. It's a win-win either way, with options from Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, or Mercer to play wing opposite him. If Celebrini sticks at center to start, then Ondrej Palat and Erik Haula likely round out that third line.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? The Devils should have been a contender this year after their impressive 2022-23, so with Celebrini in the fold, they should absolutely get back to that next season.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? A very unlucky season, dragged down by goaltending and coaching, let the Devils slip out of the playoff picture and into the race for this pick. If New Jersey wins another draft lottery, it's more lucky than deserving. — Shayna Goldman

Buffalo Sabres

What are the odds? 3.0 percent

When was the last time the team picked first in the draft? 2021 (Owen Power)

Where would Celebrini play in Game 1? He'd have a strong chance to be on the Sabres' opening night roster. Buffalo is in need of a third center after trading Casey Mittelstadt, so Celebrini could slot in there. He could also play in the top six if either Tage Thompson or Dylan Cozens moved to wing.

Who are his most likely linemates? Adding a player like Celebrini would make Buffalo rethink what the top three lines look like. The Sabres also have a lot up in the air with a new coach and four open roster spots in their forward group. Celebrini could play with 2023 first-rounder Zach Benson and an experienced winger like Alex Tuch. He could play with Jeff Skinner, assuming the Sabres don't buy him out. But there's also a chance Celebrini's hypothetical linemates aren't on the team yet.

What year would the team return to contention with Celebrini? The hope would be next season. Lindy Ruff said this is a "win-now situation." Would adding another 18-year-old put them over the edge in 2024-25? Maybe not. But Celebrini is the type of player that would make the Sabres better right away and could become their top center before too long.

Why does the team deserve Celebrini? The Sabres have obviously already had their crack at top draft picks over the last decade. They took Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel No. 2 overall. Eichel won a Stanley Cup with the Golden Knights and Reinhart scored 57 goals for the Panthers. The Sabres have since had two No. 1 overall picks, Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power. Still, they have a 13-season playoff drought, the longest in the history of the league. That seems like reason enough for why they deserve some good fortune. Buffalo's fan base is starving for a winner. Maybe Celebrini could help deliver that. — Matthew Fairburn

(Photo of Macklin Celebrini: Michael Miller / ISI Photos/Getty Images)