NBA power rankings: Conference Semifinals edition

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Only eight teams remain in the 2024 NBA playoffs, and with the conference semifinals underway, let's see how the final eight teams stack up.

NBA Conference Semifinals power rankings

The first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs is now complete, and the eventual 2024 NBA Champion is just 12 wins away from hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy.

In the Eastern Conference, the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics avenged last year's conference finals loss by dispatching the Miami Heat in a gentleman's sweep. The other three series all went at least six games, with the Knicks, Pacers, and Cavaliers all prevailing.

The Western Conference was not quite as competitive in the first round, as the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder and No. 3 seed Minnesota Timberwolves each won 4-0, while the No. 2 seed and reigning champion Denver Nuggets lost just one game to the Lakers. The Mavericks emerged from the final series in a hard-fought six-game battle against the Clippers.

Looking ahead at the rest of the 2024 NBA playoffs, this is how the eight remaining teams stack up.

The favorites

One team is a clear favorite in each conference. While these teams are a cut above the rest of the competition, they still have plenty of work to do to reach the NBA Finals.

No. 1 - Denver Nuggets

Based on the NBA betting odds, the Nuggets (+300) are not the biggest favorites to win the 2024 NBA Championship. That would be the next team in these rankings. However, the 2023 champs still have all the components that helped them win their first title in franchise history last year. Nikola Jokić is likely to win his third MVP, Jamal Murray is taking over games in the 4th quarter, and the 2024 Nuggets are playing much better overall defense.

The Nuggets showed some vulnerability against the Lakers and needed a few late-game comebacks to advance, but that also shows the resiliency they have developed on what is now a very playoff-tested roster. The Nuggets simply know how to win in the playoffs, and given the injury issues affecting this next team, Denver is still the team to beat in the NBA playoffs.

No. 2 - Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics were far and away the best team in the NBA during the regular season. In fact, this year's Celtics put together one of the best regular seasons in NBA history. Their net rating of 11.6 was tied with the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors as the third-best net rating ever, trailing only the last two years of the Michael Jordan-era Chicago Bulls. They are rightly prohibitive favorites to win this year's NBA title (+130 in some places and as low as +100 at bet365).

Despite their historic regular season, the Celtics come in at number two on this list for two main reasons. The first one is the injury to Kristaps Porzingis. Current reporting is that Porzingis could return from his calf strain by the Eastern Conference Finals. That would be great news for the Celtics but it's hard to trust any timelines with an injury as unpredictable as a calf strain.

The Celtics are still an excellent team without Porzingis and should have no problem reaching the ECF without him, and maybe even the NBA Finals. It's telling that their championship odds were barely affected by that injury. Still, the Celtics will sorely miss Porzingis' scoring and rim protection in the NBA Finals if he is unable to return, or if he is less than 100%.

The second reason is that the Celtics still need to show they can execute at the levels required to win games when it matters most. We have seen too many playoff disappointments from the core of this team over the last few years. Until they break through and overcome that, they cannot unseat the Nuggets, who have already proven they know how to win the toughest playoff games.

The contenders

If any team is going to upset one of the two favorites on the road to the NBA Finals, it's going to be one of these other contenders.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) drives to the basket between New Orleans Pelicans guard CJ McCollum (3) and forward Larry Nance Jr. (22) in the second half of Game 4 of an NBA basketball first-round playoff series in New Orleans, Monday, April 29, 2024. The Thunder won 97-89 to sweep the series and advance to the second round.AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

No. 3 - Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder's rise to the No. 1 seed in the loaded Western Conference was one of the best stories of the 2023-24 NBA season. Led by MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder became the youngest team ever to earn a conference's No. 1 seed, with an average age of 23.9 years. That youth gives the Thunder a tremendously bright future, but it's also the main reason they are not higher on this list.

Over the last 20 seasons, the 2023-24 Thunder had the fourth-highest percentage of minutes played by rookies and second-year players. Only one other team with a comparable level of inexperience among their core players reached the conference finals - the 2004-05 Miami Heat. That team also had a guy named Shaquille O'Neal.

The Thunder have a very good chance to become one of the youngest teams ever to reach a conference finals. They have the scoring punch and defensive intensity needed to win in the playoffs. Still, youth and inexperience is likely to show up eventually, which makes it difficult for them to be any higher on this list.

No. 4 - Minnesota Timberwolves

It was a very tough call for the No. 3 spot between the Thunder and the No. 3 seeded Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota was the most impressive team in the first round of the playoffs with a dominating sweep of the Phoenix Suns. They were the best defensive team in the league in the regular season and they continued to play suffocating defense against the Suns. Along with Anthony Edwards' ascension to superstardom, that defense makes them a threat against anyone in a seven-game series, even the Nuggets.

The main concern with the Timberwolves is their inefficient offense. They are a bit too reliant on Edwards offensively, and if opposing defenses can slow him down, the combination of Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaden McDaniels will not be enough to score efficiently in the playoffs. That was not an issue against the Suns, but they will face much tougher defenses the rest of the way.

No. 5 - New York Knicks

The series between the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers did not feel like a first-round playoff series. If it had happened in a later round, it would likely be remembered as one of the most exciting, competitive and hard-fought series in recent NBA history. Outside of Boston, the Knicks and 76ers are the two best playoff teams in the Eastern Conference, and the Knicks deserve a ton of credit for winning that series in six games.

Jalen Brunson emerged this season as an All-NBA player worthy of some MVP votes, and in his first playoff series with the Knicks, he put together some truly historic accomplishments. In game six, Brunson became the first player in NBA history to score 40 points and dish out 10 assists in a series-clinching victory on the road. It was his fourth consecutive game with at least 39 points; the last player to do that in the playoffs was Michael Jordan in 1993. Brunson also became just the 2nd player in NBA history with at least 35 points and 10 assists in three different games in a series, joining Oscar Robertson in 1963.

When you're putting yourself in the same conversation as guys like MJ and Oscar, you are doing something truly special. Brunson is one of the five best players remaining in the playoffs, and there is arguably nobody remaining who is more trustworthy in late-game situations. With Brunson leading the way, along with their elite defense and rebounding, the Knicks are the biggest threat to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference.

No. 6 - Dallas Mavericks

Dallas entered the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league following the savvy trade deadline acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Those acquisitions helped them dramatically improve their defense, which was their biggest weakness for most of the season. Prior to those trades, they had a defensive rating of 114.9 (18th); afterwards, their defensive rating was 6th-best in the league at 110.0 (ignoring the final two games in which they rested several starters).

That defense was one of the biggest keys to their series win over the Clippers, who posted a 117.9 offensive rating in the regular season (4th best) and were held to a 109.5 rating against the Mavericks. That was an encouraging sign for the Mavericks, because even as their defense improved after the trade deadline, they still struggled against the better offenses they faced. Granted, Kawhi Leonard's absence also had something to do with the Mavericks doing a better job defensively, but it was still a good performance by the Mavericks' defense.

If they can continue to play above-average defense, the superstar tandem of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving provides more than enough offense for the Mavericks to be a threat in the Western Conference. Both Dončić and Irving have made deep playoff runs already, which is more than the stars of the Thunder or Timberwolves can say. That experience could be another big factor for Dallas.

The long shots

At this point in the NBA playoffs, it is hard to call any team a long shot, but these last two teams are by a considerable margin the least likely of the remaining teams to win the NBA championship.

Cleveland Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell (45) celebrates an offensive foul against the Orlando Magic during the second half in Game 1 of an NBA basketball first-round playoff series, Saturday, April 20, 2024, in Cleveland.AP Photo/Nick Cammett

No. 7 - Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers put together a gutsy effort against the Orlando Magic in game seven of their first-round series, erasing an 18-point deficit at home to avoid a second straight first-round elimination. The Cavs were the more experienced team, and that experience showed up when it mattered most.

Donovan Mitchell has made the playoffs in every season of his seven-year career, and he scored 89 points combined in games six and seven against the Magic. That was the second-most points in games six and seven of a playoff series in league history, trailing Allen Iverson's 90 in 2001. Mitchell led the way as the Cavaliers won their first playoff series without LeBron James since 1993.

Their playoff journey will likely end in the second round with a matchup against the vaunted Celtics. That matchup is the main reason why the Cavs have the longest odds of the eight remaining teams to win the NBA championship (+8000). Despite those odds, their experience and defensive toughness have them avoiding the last spot in these rankings.

No. 8 - Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have an explosive offense led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. They led the league in scoring at 123.3 per game and posted the second-best offensive rating at 120.5 during the regular season. Their offense mostly kept humming against the banged-up Bucks in the first round, but Milwaukee did hold them to 94 and 92 points in two of their games. That was twice as many games scoring under 100 points as Indiana had in the entire regular season.

The biggest issue for Indiana is their defense, which was 24th in the league in the regular season with a rating of 117.6. While they did steadily improve defensively throughout the season, teams that struggle that much defensively rarely find much success in the playoffs, which makes it impossible for them to rank any higher on this list. If not for the Bucks' injuries, Indiana would very likely already be eliminated.

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