This Week in Mets: What did we learn in Christian Scott's debut?

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"Anger and disappointment could take you just so far, he realized, but without curiosity you were lost."

—"4321," Paul Auster

In yet another trip to the Trop the Mets would rather forget, Christian Scott's debut Saturday was the kind of individual event within a game that overshadows the result of the game itself, as disappointing as that result was for the Mets and their hitherto stalwart bullpen. Scott was outstanding from the fourth batter on — a commonality to most of his starts in 2024, regardless of level — and delivered one of the best debuts for a starting pitcher in Mets history. By GameScore, the last debut better than this was by an unheralded prospect named Jacob deGrom.

It's also just one start, and Tyler Yates also had one of the best debuts for a starting pitcher in Mets history. So what did we learn from Scott's first time on a major-league mound?

Scott has swing-and-miss stuff, inside the zone and out.

There are two different ways of generating swings-and-misses. You can overpower hitters in the zone or you can seduce them to chase pitches out of it. Scott did both on Saturday.

His 18 swings-and-misses were the most generated by a Mets starter this season. He got eight of them on his fastball, all of which were within the strike zone. Check out this full-count heater that beats Randy Arozarena to record the first out of his big-league career.

This isn't where Scott wants it; you can see Tomás Nido setting up on the outside corner to the right-handed hitter. In fact, the pitch is about as down the middle as you can throw it. And yet it worked anyway because of the 96 mph velocity and movement Scott has on his four-seamer (and because he'd preceded it with an 85 mph changeup). Ideally, Scott won't throw too many more middle-middle fastballs. It's nice to know you can get away with one sometimes though.

Scott then picked up an additional 10 swings-and-misses with his two sliders — the more traditional one and the sweeper he's only incorporated into his arsenal this year. Look at the swings Harold Ramírez, a career above-average major-league hitter, took against Scott on Saturday. Here's Ramírez against the slider:

And the sweeper:

It can be awfully fun to watch, say, Logan Webb tear through an opposing lineup by getting weak groundball after weak groundball. But a swing-and-miss is still the best outcome on most every individual pitch thrown in a big-league game, and Scott's ability to achieve that outcome distinguishes him from the rest of the New York rotation.

As mentioned earlier, those 18 swings-and-misses were the most by a Mets starter this season. Here's the last time the other members of the rotation reached that number:

Mets starters' last game with 18+ whiffs

(José Buttó's career-high is 17.)

Scott did that efficiently.

Scott piled up those swings-and-misses while maintaining a low pitch count through much of the game Saturday. He was at 60 pitches through five innings and 79 through six, which allowed him to become the first Mets starter to reach the seventh in his big-league debut since Steven Matz in 2015.

At one point, Scott recorded 12 outs in 29 pitches.

Scott walked only one and ran only three other three-ball counts while facing 25 Rays.

Scott wasn't that efficient in his month at Triple A this season; he averaged about 5 1/2 pitches per out. You don't need me to remind you how helpful it can be for this specific pitching staff if Scott can routinely handle six innings and make occasional forays beyond.

Scott just needs to figure out the first inning.

Scott allowed five first-inning runs over his last three Triple A starts — and none after in any of them. On Saturday, he gave up a run three batters into the game before stifling Tampa Bay the rest of the way. He showed the poise the Mets really like by rebounding from that rocky beginning on Saturday, limiting the damage in that first inning and then looking every bit as dominant as he had in Triple A the rest of the game.

The exposition

The Mets were swept by the Rays, and they're 0-3-1 in their past four series. New York is 16-18.

St. Louis dropped a home series to the White Sox. The Cardinals' 15-19 mark has them in last place in the NL Central.

Atlanta was swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles over the weekend, continuing a rare slump for the club. Six losses in the past eight games have dropped the Braves' record to 20-12 and their standing to second in the East behind streaking Philadelphia.

The pitching possibles

at St. Louis

LHP Sean Manaea (1-1, 3.07 ERA) v. RHP Kyle Gibson (2-2, 3.79 ERA)

RHP José Buttó (0-2, 2.57) v. RHP Miles Mikolas (2-4, 5.68)

LHP Jose Quintana (1-3, 5.20) v. RHP Sonny Gray (4-1, 0.89)

v. Atlanta

RHP Christian Scott (0-0, 1.35) v. RHP Charlie Morton (2-0, 3.50)

RHP Luis Severino (2-2, 2.93) v. RHP Bryce Elder (1-1, 5.28)

LHP Sean Manaea v. LHP Max Fried (2-0, 4.02)

Injury updates

Red = 60-day IL

Orange = 15-day IL

Blue = 10-day IL

• The concern over reliever Brooks Raley amped up and then calmed down a little: Raley won't be back as soon as the Mets initially expected, but he also is not headed for surgery that could have knocked him out for the season. The timetable for a Raley return is up in the air, dependent on how long it takes for the inflammation in his elbow to subside.

• Tylor Megill will make at least one more rehab start this week, with either Double-A Binghamton or Triple-A Syracuse. He could be ready for a big-league return after that point.

• Kodai Senga threw another live batting practice session on Saturday. The initial plan was for at least one more, though the Mets are contemplating skipping that last live BP for a rehab game.

• David Peterson made his second rehab start on Friday, tossing three more solid innings in Low A. Peterson is making progress toward being an option pretty soon after he's eligible to come off the IL.

Minor-league schedule

Triple-A: Syracuse at Lehigh Valley (Philadelphia)

Double-A: Binghamton at Portland (Boston)

High-A: Brooklyn at Rome (Atlanta)

Low-A: St. Lucie at Bradenton (Pittsburgh)

Last week in Mets

• How the Mets found Christian Scott and what that process says about their draft-and-develop pipeline.

• The Mets were furious about the ending to Wednesday night's game against the Cubs. MLB clarified its ruling the following day.

• Which Mets raised or lowered their stock in April?

• Takeaways on the Mets' Mark Vientos decision

• A late-inning loss throws the spotlight on Joey Wendle

• TWIM: The bullpen has been the Mets' strength. How can they sustain it?

A note on the epigraph

Auster, a novelist tied to New York City like few others in recent memory, passed away last week. While "4321" is terrific, my lifelong affinity for detective fiction (and especially detective metafiction) pointed me more toward "The New York Trilogy."

Auster was also a dedicated Mets fan. Another line from "4321": "The Choo Choo Colemans of this world had been born to strike out, and the Mets wouldn't have been the Mets if he hadn't."

Trivia time

You probably know that Jacob deGrom has not just the Mets record but the major-league record (with Clayton Kershaw and Danny Duffy) for swings-and-misses in a game (since tracking started in 2008). DeGrom generated 35 of them against the Phillies in a 2020 start. In fact, deGrom owns 18 of the top 20 performances by swing-and-miss count for the Mets.

So I was curious which Mets starter over the past 18 years was worst at seducing swings-and-misses. I looked at every start of at least 100 pitches and ranked them from fewest swings-and-misses to most. Six of the 12 starts of 100 pitches with three or fewer swings-and-misses belonged to the same Mets right-hander, a one-time Opening Day starter. Who is it?

(Photo of Christian Scott: Kim Klement Neitzel / USA Today)

Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton

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