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Bolton: Embrace weather variable for this week's Lone Star shootout - PGA TOUR

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In a perfect world, we'd prefer to eliminate the unpredictability of the elements of an outdoor sport in favor of data sets that help us understand what our eyes are witnessing. But golf is an imperfect pursuit.

As detailed below, THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson will be staged in conditions that, well, amount to the opposite of "golf in a dome" that often serves as the setting for The American Express in the Coachella Valley every winter. Sure, La Quinta, California, isn't immune to rain and wind, but it's typically a placebo compared to north Texas in springtime.

So it goes. Deal with it. Embrace the random.

While conditions should be OK most of the time north of Dallas, this still will be a week when it'll feel like it's going to be better to be lucky than good. That yields the chance to have some fun.

If your profile is to play it smart and safe, great. But if you've ever thought about being a little, say, counterintuitive, give that a go at TPC Craig Ranch. A shootout already is promised, so there's that headwind for otherwise predictable results, but better-laid plans don't necessarily apply when the weather doesn't cooperate.

Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton | THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

At the end of every round and eventually the tournament, there could be a little to learn about the experience, so even if it doesn't go your way, that's still something to take forward for the next time the roof is open.

Since Monday's Power Rankings, in which I always review the weather for the first time every week, the risk of inclement weather for Thursday's opening round has increased. It includes a very good chance for thunderstorms. Because of the danger, bet the over on a delay at some point. Friday's forecast is more favorable.

When this happens, it can be shrewd to stack based on the draw in DFS. While blending in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf is advised for the long haul, short-range considerations all but demand betting on the coin flip. You're already in shark-infested waters, so you might as well jump in with a plan to sink or swim. Treading is only for also-rans.

Another change in the last two days is when the wind will challenge most. Because it's always the hardest to predict, there are two types of gamers - those who have complained about it and those who will - and you know who you are. Moving Day on Saturday now presents as the best of the bunch, albeit for seriously breezy conditions for Sunday's finale.

All in all, when the conditions are a crapshoot for a shootout, conviction in decisions is the driving force. Ignore the nuance, dismiss the edge and go all-in on the most compelling combination of factors for your sensibilities.

Keith Mitchell (+375 = Top 10) … Cashmere Keith has been a top-20 machine in 2024 and he hasn't gone consecutive starts without one in his last eight starts. Prior to a T28 with Joel Dahmen at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Mitchell placed T14 at the Valero Texas Open for his sixth top 20 of the season. He remains a rock star off the tee and on approach, so the challenge has been wringing consistency out of the putter. Both of his previous appearances at TPC Craig Ranch were when it played as a par 72 (2021 and 2022) and he averaged 69.25. To consider qualifying for next week's Wells Fargo Championship, he'd need to podium this week, but this finish would be just fine for us.

Aaron Rai (+160 = Top English) … Man, what to do with this guy. The Brit always presents so attractively but he isn't plus value for a finish unless you shop in the market for top 20s at +225, and he's had only two of those in a dozen starts this year. That's why to beat five others among his countrymen is the smarter move. (At +350, Matt Wallace is second-shortest among the subset.) Sits 13th on TOUR in greens hit and T32 in proximity.

Daniel Berger (+130 = Top 40) … At some point, he'll be reinserted into the option to make or miss the cut, but we can't complain about the kickback for this finish. No, he hasn't reconnected with the firepower that pushed him to the front of the stage, but if you're going to hedge on when he's going to deliver again, you might as well lean in when his only finish at TPC Craig Ranch is a T3 in 2021. The long game is back so you're relying on this being the week when he (finally) finds magic with the putter. Two top 40s in nine starts this season.

Taiga Semikawa (+225 = Top 40) … With Peter Kuest hogging the headlines among non-members at TPC Craig Ranch, it's easy to overlook the 23-year-old from Japan who's making his fourth PGA TOUR start of the season. He's making the trip from a T24 at the ISPS HANDA CHAMPIONSHIP but his youth is a weapon against jet lag. He's already a four-time winner on the Japan Golf Tour where he placed second in the Order of Merit in 2023. We're not asking for a victory (at +25000), just a return to some form that rewarded his muscle off the tee and precision on approach on his home circuit last year.

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

Patrick Rodgers … This is his second early withdrawal of the season (WM Phoenix) to go with his mid-tournament exit from the Valero Texas Open, but he's 37th in the FedExCup with three top 10s among six top 25s. Look for him as well at Quail Hollow Club next week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout … A T3 at the ISPS HANDA CHAMPIONSHIP in Japan on Sunday lifted the South African to 53rd in the Official World Golf Ranking, so he's in terrific position to qualify for the U.S. Open when the top 60 gain entry at the conclusion of the PGA Championship for which he'll qualify via the OWGR early next week. He also might sneak into the field at next week's Wells Fargo Championship via the Aon Next 10, in which he's currently ninth.

Charley Hoffman … Rests after a T4-T11 fortnight that lifted him to 59th in the FedExCup. Suffice it to say that the 47-year-old has capitalized on the opportunities yielded by long-range insurance of a career earnings exemption this season.

Erik Barnes … Will Zalatoris is a headliner among the comeback stories in 2024, but Barnes deserves similar attention. Now almost 13 full months post-reconstructive surgery on the MPFL in his left knee, he's 87th in the FedExCup with a playoff loss at the Puerto Rico Open punctuating six paydays in nine starts. Has eight starts on a medical extension to collect 46.563 FedExCup points. (He's closest to his goal among all golfers on medicals.) That would require no worse than a solo 19th-place finish (worth 47 points) at TPC Craig Ranch where he's making his debut. Because he's already cleared the threshold for conditional status, he's eligible for the Playoffs even if he falls short of the target on the medical, but fulfilling the medical would promote him from the graduate reshuffle category to the Major Medical category. It also would grant him the opportunity to tee it up in every open without sweating the cutline for entry on conditional status.

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