Do LeBron and the Lakers Even Still Make Sense Together?

LeBron James faces a pivotal decision about his future this summer, and the Lakers must consider theirs, too. Should they really mortgage everything again for LeBron, who will turn 40 in December? Can they really trust that the oft-injured Anthony Davis will remain as durable as he did this season as he gets deeper into his 30s? Is sacrificing all of the Lakers' future firsts really worth it if there isn't a move that makes them a true title contender next season?

Sources around the league have largely believed all season that LeBron's strong preference is to remain with the Lakers for the remainder of his career. The Athletic reported after the Lakers' season-ending loss to the Nuggets on Monday that the Lakers are open to drafting Bronny James and giving LeBron a three-year, $164 million maximum contract extension. But ESPN's postgame report painted a different picture, saying that LeBron's future "remains a mystery," with sources indicating team officials don't know what he'll do with his $51.4 million player option this summer.

"I'm not going to answer that," LeBron smirked and side-eyed after being asked if he'd given any thought to this potentially being his final game with the Lakers. The truth is, of course he has. This is the guy that announced The Decision on national TV, left Miami for Cleveland with a public letter, and then joined the Lakers after there were rumblings a full year in advance that he would do it. Yes, he's thought about his future.

On the one hand, the Lakers would obviously be happy to have LeBron back as he remains one of the NBA's best players despite his advanced age. The Lakers can feel like they're close, too, after holding the lead for nearly 70 percent of their first-round series against the Nuggets. Both The Athletic and ESPN reported that Darvin Ham is likely to be fired. Replacing the Lakers' incompetent head coach and paying a hefty price for a great one would represent an immediate upgrade for this team and maybe be enough to make a difference.

But on the other hand, despite how closely the Lakers played the Nuggets for five games, it was the same story as last season with countless second-half blown leads and an inability to slow down Denver's offense. Since winning the title in 2020, the Lakers have missed the playoffs once, have suffered a pair of first-round exits, and have been swept in the conference finals. How close are they to winning another title in reality? Not only have the Nuggets won 12 of their past 13 matchups, the Lakers have also been surpassed by veteran-laden teams in the West like the Minnesota Timberwolves and up-and-comers like the Oklahoma City Thunder.

"I'm not a participation guy," LeBron said Monday night when asked if hanging with the defending champions instilled more confidence in the Lakers for next season. James still is a dominant force, who averaged 27.8 points, 8.8 assists, and 6.8 rebounds while flying around on defense in 40.8 minutes per game against the Nuggets, following a full regular season in which he should be a lock for All-NBA honors for the 20th time. But participating is really all he's done since 2020, and in the meantime, LeBron and his agency, Klutch Sports, know they've lost influence in the Lakers front office. If they hadn't, more draft picks would've been moved over the past two trade deadlines, and Ham would've been ousted midseason in favor of LeBron's guy on the staff, assistant coach Phil Handy.

The Lakers front office has instead maintained flexibility for the future. Entering this offseason, the Lakers can trade three future firsts (2024 or 2025, 2029, and 2031), three first-round swaps (2026, 2028, and 2030), and five second-round picks. Austin Reaves has value as a young player on an incredibly team-friendly contract. And Jalen Hood-Schifino is a young point guard who could be attractive to teams. But the Lakers aren't the only team with a stash of picks. Even if a star demanded a trade this summer and preferred the Lakers, there are other teams that could easily exceed their offer. Remember in 2017 when Paul George wanted to go to the Lakers but the Thunder made a better offer to the Pacers? History could repeat. League sources expect the Jazz and Pelicans to be aggressive in pursuing trades this summer with their mountains of picks. And the Thunder have more assets than anyone else, giving them the ability to trump just about any offer for any player.

There will be a lot of movement across the league this summer due to salary cap rules forcing many teams' hands, which could give the Lakers chances to bolster the roster. But there likely isn't a move that would allow them to close the gap with Denver, and there may never be. The title window could be shut for the LeBron-AD core.

All this is to say, LeBron needs to weigh whether the Lakers are the best home for him to pursue another championship and put the finishing touches on his legacy before his career is over, while the Lakers need to figure out whether going all-in around LeBron gives them a realistic chance at winning a title or whether they're better off on focusing on landing the next star.

Southern California's allure and the Lakers' storied history will always make the Lakers a destination for stars. But the team can't be a wasteland and still lure big names. When LeBron joined in 2018, the Lakers had a ton of young players and draft picks and promise. To attract Luka Doncic, or any superstar from the next generation, the Lakers need to at least be similarly well-positioned.

Losing LeBron would give the Lakers the freedom to shop Davis following one of the greatest seasons of his career. AD was a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate, dominated in the post, and delivered an All-Star season while missing only six games. Would a team with a top pick such as the Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, or Toronto Raptors be willing to move their 2024 first plus future assets for AD? Maybe having a dominant defender to pair with talented young players would have greater appeal than the mystery box prospects in this draft class. Or perhaps a Finals hopeful with trade assets such as the Miami Heat or Sacramento Kings would look to cash in assets, viewing AD as the final piece of the puzzle. A haul for Davis would position the Lakers to build a younger roster with cap flexibility and assets to pursue stars—Luka, anyone?—via trade or free agency.

Every decision made this offseason will signal the direction for the next era of Lakers basketball. The weeks ahead will be a pivotal window to assess whether doubling down on the present roster or preparing for a future without LeBron will yield the best results for the franchise's ambitions. We already know James and his circle will be doing the same thing on their end. But where would he even go?

Out East, the Philadelphia 76ers inquired about trading for James ahead of February's trade deadline. So clearly Philadelphia would have interest in using its cap space on LeBron this summer. It's worth noting that Bronny James could transfer to Duquesne, an Atlantic 10 Conference school in Pittsburgh, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. LeBron's high school teammate Dru Joyce is the head coach. And Philadelphia to Pittsburgh is just a short flight. Cleveland isn't too far either if LeBron wanted a third act back home. It's hard not to get carried away dreaming about all the possibilities. Like LeBron opting for a second stint in Miami or being the piece who helps the Knicks back to glory in the Big Apple.

In the West, the Warriors could make another run after expressing interest in LeBron before the trade deadline. It shouldn't shock anyone if his BFF Draymond Green is doing his best to recruit him following his playoff exit. Getting even more creative, I'm fascinated by the idea of LeBron playing in San Antonio for Gregg Popovich as the point guard to help Victor Wembanyama contend immediately. But San Antonio would need to make other big moves, unlike the Dallas Mavericks, who my boss Bill Simmons has long speculated that LeBron could have eyes for to pair up with Luka and old friend Kyrie Irving.

Maybe all this is just talk and offseason fodder, and LeBron ends up staying in Los Angeles with the front office finding an upgrade over Ham, a more consistent point guard than D'Angelo Russell, a better forward than Taurean Prince, and a more talented backup center than Jaxson Hayes.

But there are a lot of problems that need fixing to only kinda-maybe-sorta give Los Angeles a shot at making another deep run with LeBron. As James has shown throughout his career, sometimes the best move is knowing when to walk away.