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Ukraine rushes to exploit short ATACMS window

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Kyiv's forces are in a race against time to leverage the American-made long range ATACMS—the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System—against Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, as Moscow's troops begin again their cycle of adaptation to new weapons.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan revealed in April that the U.S. had already supplied a "significant number" of ATACMS to Ukraine in secret, fulfilling Kyiv's long-held ambition to acquire the long-range weapons system that puts all of occupied Crimea in its crosshairs.

The U.S. had already supplied shorter-range variants of the ATACMS, but Ukraine now has missiles that can hit targets at a range of around 190 miles. This is "a capability we will continue to provide," Sullivan said.

The ATACMS are already making an impact across occupied Ukraine. Russian air-defense systems, air bases, and training sites were among the first victims of Kyiv's new ATACMS offensive, with speculation rife that the Kerch Strait Bridge will be among the eventual targets.

U.S. forces fire an Army Tactical Missile System at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico on December 14, 2021. Ukraine is now using the long-range weapon against Russian targets. John Hamilton/White Sands Missile Range Public Affairs

Moscow's forces are already reacting, and the Russian military has claimed to have downed several missiles aimed at Crimea. As with previous Western weapons systems, the ATACMS effect will likely tail off as Russian troops adapt to their use.

"As we know, the Russians are able to adapt in a very short period of time," Ivan Stupak, a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine and now an adviser to the Ukrainian parliament's national security, defense and intelligence committee, told Newsweek.

"I think we have up to two months to eliminate as many Russian war objects as is possible before the Russians will adapt," Stupak added.

"Just have a look at the Excalibur high-precision projectiles; their level of accuracy has been significantly decreased from 70 percent to 6 percent due to Russian electronic warfare systems."

The successful, or proposed, delivery of each individual weapons system—whether HIMARS, Leopard 2 tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, ATACMS or F-16 fighter jets and so on—to Ukraine prompts a mass of media coverage and public comments. But no one system has upended the strategic balance in Ukraine.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned last weekend, when discussing Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, "I would caution anyone in believing that one type of system is going to be a silver bullet.

"It's going to be a combination of a number of systems. It's going to be dependent upon whether or not Ukraine can effectively employ these systems and sustain those systems, and whether or not Ukraine can mobilize an adequate number of troops to replenish its ranks."

Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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