Failure to Launch: Mariners at Astros Series Preview

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You're probably familiar by now with the struggles the Astros have faced so far in 2024, but let's recap: they have already been swept four times this season, by the Yankees, Royals, Braves, and Cubs. However, when they're not getting swept, the Astros have actually won their five other series, and split one against Texas, who they've already played twice this season. Oh yeah, also they have a no-hitter on the books despite the rotation suffering a rash of injuries. The Astros have really turned it on of late, though; they've gotten some key pieces to their rotation back, and are winners of four of their last five, bolstered largely by trouncing the hapless Rockies in Mexico City, but they also took a series from the division-leading Guardians. It's a weird start for the perennial AL West powerhouse, and as we say around here, we'll believe the Astros are dead when we see proof of the body — although, as Mariners fans know well, the deeper the early-season hole, the harder it is to dig out of later in the season.

At a Glance

Mariners Astros Mariners Astros Game 1 Friday, May 3 | 5:10 pm RHP George Kirby RHP Ronel Blanco 48% 52% Game 2 Saturday, May 4 | 4:15 pm RHP Logan Gilbert LHP Framber Valdez 38% 62% Game 3 Sunday, May 5 | 11:10 am RHP Bryce Miller RHP Hunter Brown 41% 59%

*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Team Overview

Overview Astros Mariners Edge Overview Astros Mariners Edge Batting (wRC+) 117 (2nd in AL) 93 (12th in AL) Astros Fielding (FRV) -3 (10th) 0 (9th) Mariners Starting Pitching (FIP-) 109 (12th) 86 (2nd) Mariners Bullpen (FIP-) 109 (11th) 89 (4th) Mariners

2024 stats

(Note: with a month of the season past already, I'll be using 2024 stats where appropriate throughout this preview.)

Oh no I hope no one shows Logan-slash-Walter this table that shows his start has the lowest projected win percentage via FanGraphs. Ditto for George Kirby and Bryce Miller, though, for real.

While the Mariners's sleepy offense has been propped up by their historic run of starting pitching, the Astros' uncharacteristically shaky starting pitching has been propped up by their good-as-usual offense. However, the Astros now have Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez back in the fold, so that starting pitching — which currently ranks 23rd by fWAR in MLB, unheard of depths for the bullies of the AL West — should start to stabilize. The Astros also recently optioned Jose Abreu, off to an absolutely dreadful start to the year, to their complex in Florida to try to solve whatever issue it is that has him hitting not just below the Mendoza line, but below .100.

One of the biggest problems for Houston has been the bullpen, traditionally a strength for the Astros and something they spent big money on upgrading this offseason by signing Josh Hader. Hader has struggled, and the bullpen has been the sixth-worst in the league by fWAR, down with the likes of Colorado's and San Francisco's. The Houston bullpen has seven blown saves already, tied for third-most in MLB, and that problem isn't going to get a major infusion of new help anytime soon. (In case you were wondering, the Mariners bullpen has blown one (1) save, tied with Toronto for fewest in MLB this season.)

Astros Lineup

Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Jose Altuve 2B R 142 14.1% 9.2% 0.234 188 Alex Bregman 3B R 122 13.1% 9.0% 0.073 60 Yordan Alvarez DH L 138 15.9% 8.0% 0.195 114 Kyle Tucker RF L 140 15.7% 15.7% 0.265 174 Jeremy Peña SS R 128 13.3% 3.9% 0.133 145 Yainer Diaz C R 121 14.0% 5.8% 0.142 115 Jon Singleton 1B L 59 20.3% 11.9% 0.157 128 Joey Loperfido LF L 122 30.3% 13.1% 0.426 153 Mauricio Dubón CF R 71 7.0% 2.8% 0.132 116

2024 stats; Loperfido's stats from Triple-A

The Astros' lineup is performing basically like you'd expect from the Houston Hit Factory, with one glaring exception: Alex Bregman is suffering the worst start to a season he's ever had in his career, with a complete power outage. He's still displaying his excellent plate discipline, but he's pounding the ball into the ground at an alarming rate. The other underperforming member of the lineup, Jose Abreu, has been booted to Florida to try to get right, allowing the Astros to call up top prospect Joey Loperfido. Loperfido has hit well for power in the offensive-friendly confines of Corpus Christi and Sugar Land, but struggled with strikeouts in the upper minors, especially in Triple-A. As a group, this is still an above-average squad for hitting; while the Mariners are the easiest team to strike out in baseball, Houston is the hardest. It feels like there has to be some regression for this offense, which somehow has a -16 run differential despite posting solid numbers up and down the lineup. But that depends heavily on their pitching overcoming some early season injuries, slow starts, and ineffectiveness, especially in the bullpen.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images

RHP Ronel Blanco

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP 32 2/3 23.4% 10.9% 5.6% 47.6% 1.65 3.50 Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 37.3% 93.7 73 113 75 0.327 Cutter 7.6% 87.2 Changeup 31.6% 85.5 126 126 176 0.192 Curveball 2.7% 79.4 Slider 20.7% 87.0 88 63 156 0.217

2024 stats

Ronel Blanco has been one of the lone bright spots for the Astros this season. He spun a no-hitter in his first start of the season — and just the eighth big league start of his career — and then followed it up with another 5.2 innings of no-hit ball in his next start. A late-bloomer for the Astros, he only returned to the starting rotation last year after spending the majority of his minor league career pitching out of the bullpen. The biggest difference for him this year is a changeup that's decimating hitters. His fastball is only okay — he can locate it at the top of the zone really well but it doesn't have a standout shape — and his cutter/slider is decent.

LHP Framber Valdez

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP 198 24.8% 7.1% 14.0% 54.2% 3.45 3.50 Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Sinker 46.8% 95.3 97 82 75 0.389 Cutter 3.4% 89.1 126 177 110 0.249 Changeup 15.7% 90.1 96 102 94 0.295 Curveball 25.3% 80.2 117 127 100 0.232 Slider 8.7% 84.7 126 125 114 0.237

2023 stats

A minor elbow injury cost Framber Valdez a couple of weeks of the first month of the season. He returned last weekend to pitch in the Mexico City series against the Rockies and acquitted himself well in the thin air. Valdez wasn't quite as good last year as he was in his huge 2022 breakout season. A new cutter really helped him down the stretch but that pitch has disappeared from his pitch mix this year. His two breaking balls are still fantastic and true plus plus pitches, but his arsenal needs something that sits between them and his 95 mph sinker.

RHP Hunter Brown

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP 23 20.9% 12.2% 22.7% 48.1% 9.78 5.04 Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 45.3% 95.0 91 122 84 0.308 Cutter 18.0% 92.2 99 Splitter 13.0% 87.9 105 Curveball 15.7% 81.4 139 Slider 8.0% 87.9 120

2024 stats

Hunter Brown has been absolutely pummeled to start this season. He looked decent in his first start of the year against the Yankees, holding them to a single run in four innings, but he's allowed 25 runs in the five starts since then including a nine-run disaster against the Royals on April 11. He doesn't have pinpoint accuracy with his fastball, leading to far too many heaters left over the heart of the plate. He also doesn't have as much confidence in his secondary offerings which means his pitch mix is extremely fastball heavy. That's a pretty bad combination, and with all the bad batted ball luck, it has conspired to sink his season so far.

The Big Picture:

AL West Standings

Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Mariners 17-14 0.548 -- W-L-W-W-L Rangers 17-15 0.531 0.5 L-W-W-L-W Athletics 15-17 0.469 2.5 L-W-W-W-W Astros 11-20 0.355 6.0 W-W-W-L-W Angels 11-20 0.355 6.0 L-L-W-L-L

The Mariners maintain a whisper-thin lead in the AL West as the Rangers matched them blow-for-blow with series wins against the Reds and Nationals. Next up for Texas is a tough test against the red-hot Royals, and then the surprising A's. The A's, current holders of third (!) place in the AL West, get a blow against the Marlins before facing Texas. Meanwhile, the Astros and Angels are currently slugging it out for bottom billing in the AL West. However, the Angels won just one of their last five games, saw Mike Trout placed on the IL, and now have to face a very good Guardians squad, so things are looking pretty grim for the Halos.

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