Stanley Cup Playoffs: Hurricanes vs Rangers Round Two Preview

The two teams have been circling each other since that 2022 season. That year the NHL returned to the current division and playoff format, and the two have been battling for the top spot in each season. This is the first season the Rangers were able to take the crown, thanks mostly to the slow start of the Canes. The Rangers went through some bumps themselves, but they were able to right the ship a little quicker than Carolina, and held on to take the division with a win on their last game.

So let's take a bit of a broad preview of the series before we dig into each game. How we got here, what's happened up to this point, and how each team looks by the numbers.

How We Got Here

Carolina Hurricanes

You can catch the season recap in the Islanders preview. The start of the Playoffs brought the New York Islanders, and the familiar style of a grind-it-out game ensued. The Islanders showed they had been in a fight for the playoffs and the Canes took a while to warm up to their game. The Canes won Game 1 but most felt the Islanders won everywhere but the scoreboard. That feeling increased as the Islanders raced out to a 3-1 lead in Game 2. However, the Canes completed another storied comeback to win 5-3, and while the last three games were close, with the Islanders taking Game 4, most felt the series was done after that.

The story going in was whether or not the Canes would continue with their goalie rotation or stick with the hot goalie. Then Frederick Andersen erased all questions. He started all five games, and though he may have appeared to be wearing down slightly by Game 5, he still posted a 2.25 GAA and a .912 save percentage. He made several game-saving stops and showed the net was his. With four full days off between games, there's zero doubt he'll start Game 1.

New York Rangers

Coming off the upset at the hands of the Devils last season, the Rangers decided that it was time for a change in leadership. Freshly off being let go in Washington, they brought in noted one season boost—and former Canes coach—Peter Laviolette to lead this season. It was their biggest move of the off season, as their on-ice core remained in place.

Unlike the Hurricanes, the Rangers got off to a fast start and fought with Philadelphia at the start of the season for first place in the division. Their swoon came at the turn of the New Year. In January the Rangers played fourteen games but only won five. It started with a drumming in MSG by the Hurricanes in Raleigh and it never really got any better the rest of the month.

At the heart of it was all-world goalie Igor Shesterkin looking amazingly human, and the Rangers had little option but to hope he would get out of it. They had Jonathan Quick to help, but ultimately they knew that to go far, Shesterkin would have to figure it out. The division looked getable all of a sudden.

The All-Star Break came at the perfect time, and the Rangers were a different team for the rest of the regular season. They went 10-1 in February, helped immensely by Shesterkin's return to form and the callup of cult hero Matt Rempe. Unlike last year, the Rangers took the "we like our group" route and made very minimal moves at the trade deadline, and while the Canes managed to close in, they could never catch the Rangers.

Winning the Presidents' Cup got the Rangers the worst playoff team in the NHL, the corpse of the Washington Capitals who had expended all they could just to get in. They easily swept the Caps, mostly by focusing on Alex Ovechkin and daring anyone else to beat them. They did not. The Rangers last played on Sunday, and with home ice advantage they've been able to camp out in Manhattan and prepare.

Season Meetings

November 2, 2023-Car 1, NYR 2

January 2, 2024-NYR 1, Car 6

March 12, 2024-NYR 1, Car 0

So that every team can come through an NHL arena one time a season, this year the Rangers were the "only face three instead of four times" team on the schedule for the Canes. The league spread out each game so much that it's tough to take too much from the earlier meetings. The first one was as the Canes were about to go through their swoon and the Rangers were in the midst of their hot start. The second match up was the reverse, and the third saw Jake Guentzel enter the lineup for the Canes the first time. It's fair to say that the Rangers have yet to actually face this version of the Canes, unlike the Islanders who got the version where Guentzel had a few games under his belt and was playing on the top line.

Also of note, the only time Andersen faced the Blue Shirts this year was that game in November. Right after that game is when the symptoms of his clotting issues were making themselves known, and he wouldn't play again for months.

Team Stats

Regular season

Goals Forced-Hurricanes 8th, Rangers 278/7th

Goals Allowed-Hurricanes 211/4th, Rangers 226/7th

Power Play-Hurricanes 26.9%/2nd, Rangers 25.4%/3rd

Penalty Kill-Hurricanes 86.4%/1st, Rangers 84.5%/3rd

Shots per Game-Hurricanes 33.3/3rd, Rangers 31.5/12th

Face off Wins-Hurricanes 52.6%/6th, Rangers 52.3%/7th

The two teams are right next two each other on special teams, with the Canes being slightly better on both the Power Play and Penalty Kill. That said, it's one thing to have a strong kill when you aren't facing the team with the third best Power Play over the course of a series. The advantage for the Canes is clearly at 5 on 5, as the Canes will put up a lot more shots on goal, and now have an elite finisher in Guentzel. This is where other previews have mostly focused on how the dynamics of this series will go, as the Canes hung with New York even before their current form.

Series Odds

Carolina Hurricanes -160, New York Rangers +140

This alone tells you what the numbers are spelling out for this series. Despite being the Presidents' Cup winners, having home ice, plus taking two of three in the regular season, the Canes are not only the betting favorites but decidedly so. No doubt that's fodder for Laviolette, the Rangers, and their fans to be considered disrespected—although once the series starts the commentary will likely have a very pro-Rangers edge due to the familiarity national commentators have with the team.

Series Schedule

Game 1-Hurricanes at Rangers, Sunday 5/5 4 PM, ESPN

Game 2-Hurricanes at Rangers, Tuesday, 5/7, TBD, ESPN

Game 3-Rangers at Hurricanes, Thursday, 5/9, TBD, TNT/TruTV, Max

Game 4-Rangers at Hurricanes, Saturday, 5/11, TBD, TNT/TruTV, Max

Game 5-Hurricanes at Rangers, Monday, 5/13, TBD, TBD *

Game 6-Rangers at Hurricanes, Thursday, 5/16, TBD, TBD *

Game 7-Hurricanes at Rangers, Saturday, 5/18, TBD, TBD *

*If Necessary

The league finally gave us dates once the Bruins completed their Game 7 victory over the Maple Leafs, and interestingly enough the two teams that'll have rested for almost a week won't get an extra day off unless the series goes to a sixth game. This also will bring about a Saturday in Raleighwood, it's just a question of if it'll be a Saturday night in Raleighwood.

This has all the makings of a seven game classic, even though metrics tell us otherwise. The difference between the teams is small enough that a small change here or there could be all it takes to tilt the scales. When will the Canes get Brent Pesce back, and will Andersen start all the games or with Pyotr Kochetkov—who was the goalie for that 6-1 win in January—see some time? How long before some Rangers sponsor gloms onto the tired geofencing narrative to reward Rangers fans who go to Games 3 and 4 in PNC? Did the Canes finally add enough offense to crack a goalie who stands on his head? Either way, the preliminaries are over and it's nothing but big-time hockey from here on out.