Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

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• Todd Zola, FantasyMay 5, 2024, 12:04 PM ET

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  • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
  • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Rocky Mountain Low

Splits facing left-handed pitching are sketchy since only 28% of major league pitches are thrown by southpaws. Parsing them even further in-season adds to the variance.

Looking at a team's fate facing left-handed on a year-to-year basis is a slippery slope since there is usually roster turnover.

Yet, one of the consistencies amid a sea of uncertainty is the Colorado Rockies struggle on the road versus left-handed pitching. Since 2013, the Rockies road wOBA facing lefties is .289. The next lowest mark is the Texas Rangers with .300 mark, an 11 point difference. There are 13 teams between the Rangers and the Milwaukee Brewers .311 wOBA.

Similarly, the Rockies' 25.5% strikeout rate is the lowest in this scenario. Trailing only the Rangers' 23.8% clip. The difference is 1.7%. Taking that away from 23.8% yields 22.1%, which is where the Arizona Diamondbacks check in with the 17th highest rate.

For years, many have hypothesized the reason the Rockies don't fare well beginning a road trip after a homestand is it takes a game or two to reacclimate to the difference in pitch movement. They see even fewer left-handers, so the issues may be exasperated.

On Sunday, the Rockies will square off with southpaw Bailey Falter in the finale of a three-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Falter (7.5% rostered in ESPN leagues). Falter may rank among the bottom third of Sunday's starters, but context renders the 27-year-old lefty in play for those needing a spot starter, especially in deeper leagues. Falter is coming off a disappointing outing to begin the week where he gave up five in six innings to the Oakland Athletics. However, Falter fanned five with no walks in that span.

What you may have missed on Saturday

• The Washington National placed Trea Turner on the IL with a hamstring strain incurred Friday night when scoring from second on a passed ball. Turner is expected to miss at least six weeks. Edmundo Sosa will likely be the fill-in at shortstop.

• The San Francisco Giants catching corps is thinning. The club put Patrick Bailey on the 7-day concussion list after he took a foul tip off the mask on Friday night. Yesterday, Tom Murphy hurt his knee hustling after a wild pitch and left in the second inning. Blake Sabol, who was recalled to take Bailey's roster spot, took over behind the plate and will likely start today.

• Logan O'Hoppe left Saturday's game early after getting hit in his throwing hand by a foul tip. X-rays were negative, but O'Hoppe isn't in today's lineup when the Los Angeles Angels wrap up a three game set with the Cleveland Guardians. It's unclear if the move is precautionary or if O'Hoppe's availability in weekly leagues next week is in jeopardy. Matt Thaiss gets the nod behind the plate today. He'll bat sixth against Carlos Carrasco.

• In the same game, Steven Kwan left at the beginning of the fourth inning with a hamstring issue. He's also not in today's lineup so he's also questionable heading into Monday. · Wyatt Langford left yesterday's game in the fifth inning with a tight hamstring. The Texas Rangers rookie got hurt trying to beat out a swinging bunt. The seriousness of the issue is unclear, so add Langford to the list of players to monitor when making Monday lineup decisions.

• Let's add another name to this list with Alec Bohm being removed with hip tightness from the Philadelphia Phillies 14-3 win over the San Francisco Giants. The Phillies were ahead 9-1 when Bohm exited in the third inning, and the club is deeming the move precautionary. The Phillies and Giants play the Sunday night ESPN affair, so Bohm's availability won't be clear until this evening.

• Kevin Gausman has been pitching better lately, but his strikeouts were still down. Yesterday, he fanned eight in 5 1/3 scoreless frames in the Toronto Blue Jays 6-3 win over the Washington Nationals. His velocity remained a tick low, but the increase in punch outs is still encouraging.

Everything else you need to know for Sunday

• The Rockies-Pirates contest is one of three games getting slate started at 1:35 pm. p.m. ET. The fantasy week ends with the Philadelphia Phillies entertaining the San Francisco Giants in the 7 p.m. ET ESPN Sunday night affair.

• Nestor Cortes (44.0% rostered) is the top-ranked streamer and second overall starter on the Sunday docket. The New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers in another of the 1:35 p.m. ET games. Cortes draws a tough mound foe in Tarik Skubal, but the Tigers offense is among the least productive in the league while striking out at an above average rate.

• Luis Severino (31.6% rostered) checks in next with the New York Mets visiting the Tampa Bay Rays. Offensively, the Rays are slow out of the gate with an uncharacteristically high strikeout rate. Their lineup is usually replete with veterans benefiting from the platoon edge. This season, the offense has a lot of younger players searching for an identity. After getting hit hard in his debut with the Mets, Severino has posted a 1.80 ERA and .87 WHIP in his subsequent five starts, covering 30 innings.

• The final 1:35 p.m. ET matchup features the return of Alek Manoah (3.9% rostered) with the Toronto Blue Jays wrapping up a weekend series on the road with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals wOBA is below average, but they don't strike out much. Manoah's fall from grace has been well documented. His nadir was last Jube when he gave up 11 earned runs in 2 2/3rd innings to the Yankees affiliate in the Florida Complex League.

• Be it getting used to the pitch clock or injuries, Manoah has been a shadow of the guy registering a 2.60 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over his first 308 1/3 career innings. Manoah was placed on the IL with shoulder stiffness towards the end of spring training. He was hit hard over his first four rehab efforts, recording a 11.85 ERA and 2.56 WHIP over 13 2/3 frames. However, Manoah punched out 12 in six stanzas to end April. On Sunday, anything goes for those needing to make up ground in head-to-head leagues, but the safe play is taking the wait-and-see approach for those not desperate.

• Betting Tip of the Day: Let's raise the Jolly Roger. I'm going to hitch my bets to the Pirates, hoping the Rockies road struggles facing lefties continue. First, I'll take the over on Bailey Falter with 5.5 strikeouts (+105) along with backing the Pirates -1.5 Run Line (+135).

It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

• Joc Pederson (ARI, LF -- 4%) vs. Matt Waldron

• Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 7%) vs. Cooper Criswell

• Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 20%) at Lynch

• Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH, 2B -- 8%) vs. Manoah

• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN, 1B -- 20%) vs. Dean Kremer

• Alex Kirilloff (MIN, 1B -- 7%) vs. Criswell

• Jake McCarthy (ARI, RF -- 1%) vs. Waldron

• Nolan Schanuel (LAA, 1B -- 2%) at Carlos Carrasco

• Jackson Merrill (SD, SS -- 37%) at Nelson

• Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 32%) at Nick Lodolo

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

• Michael Busch (CHC, 3B -- 65%) vs. Freddy Peralta

• Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 77%) vs. Peralta

• Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 65%) at Lodolo

• Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 81%) vs. Tarik Skubal

• Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 61%) vs. Logan Webb

• Tyler O'Neill (BOS, LF -- 69%) at Joe Ryan

• Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 77%) vs. Peralta

• Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 56%) at Nestor Cortes

• Gleyber Torres (NYY, 2B -- 72%) vs. Skubal

• Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 72%) at Hunter Brown

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

• Atlanta Braves at James Paxton

• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Waldron

• San Diego Padres at Nelson