Why Boeing's Starliner has a lot at stake

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If all goes according to plan, Boeing's CST-100 Starliner will finally fly people into space on its first crewed test. Unveiled originally in 2010, the Crew Flight Test (CFT) will represent the first time people fly in a Starliner into space. The mission is currently scheduled to launch at 12.34pm AEST Tuesday.

Boeing Starliner is one of two space vehicles, the other being SpaceX's Crew Dragon, funded by NASA to be reusable and a serve essentially as a space taxi. Boeing and SpaceX were chosen as part of the commercial crew program in 2010 to develop ways the United States could get its astronauts to the International Space Station. The key was cost-effective, reusable, and often; all things the US's Space Shuttle was not.

The original vision of the space shuttle was to have a space vehicle that could go up about once per week or fortnight, and cost tens of millions per launch. In reality, the shuttle flew 135 missions, at most once a month, and cost $209 billion, or about $1.5 billion per mission. This huge price tag limited other work, like getting back to the Moon.

Boeing needs to fly for NASA to recoup its development money, which is why this test is critical to get right.

By stopping the shuttle, and working with private companies on getting into space, NASA could spend resources elsewhere - one of the reasons we have seen a new resurgence in activity to and around the Moon.

NASA invested more $4.6 billion (US) in Boeing's CST Starliner program, or about three Space Shuttle launches. Boeing needs to fly though for NASA to recoup its development money, which is why this test is critical to get right.

The SpaceX Crew Dragon has already launched eight crewed missions (plus the crewed test) and two private missions by Axiom Space to the International Space Station, a tourist mission in orbit around the Earth for a few days, with many more missions planned.

Boeing's Starliner program in development to launch crewed missions to the International Space Station. Picture Shutterstock

However, Boeing is on their fourth test, with three uncrewed tests before. The first test was in December 2019, and at that time, SpaceX and Boeing were close to each other in terms of development, and there was a bit of a race to see who could be first. During this test, the capsule successfully launched. However, a software malfunction threw off the internal clock and timing, meaning the capsule didn't do the right maneuvers at the right time, and couldn't reach the space station.

After about 18 months of fixes based on the test, Boeing had their second attempt at OFT2 in August 2021. Only this time, it never even got off the ground, with problems being detected with valves before launch.

Eight months of further fixes, they had their third test in May 2022 which was mostly successful, but showed further work and tweaks were needed, bringing us to this week.

However, if all goes according to plan, there will be two private companies capable of taking people to the International Space Station.

• Brad Tucker is an astrophysicist and cosmologist at Mount Stromlo Observatory, and the National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science at ANU.