The Anthony Edwards Takeover and the NBA's Biggest Second-Round Story Lines

Aaron Gordon made an entry pass to Nikola Jokic, then pivoted and set a pick for Jamal Murray before rolling to the rim. Murray rubbed off Gordon's screen to collect a handoff from Jokic and then, when the Timberwolves blitzed, passed back to Jokic for a two-on-one opportunity at the rim. When Jokic catches the ball in this position, with this much space in front of him, nobody ever stops him: Either the two-time MVP will sink a floater or toss an alley-oop to Gordon.

And yet, on this crucial crunch-time play, the Timberwolves did stop him. Soon-to-be four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert feigned toward Jokic, induced the pass, and rocked back to swat it away. Minnesota stole the ball, clinched a Game 1 victory on the road, and welcomed the second round of the playoffs with open, searching arms.

Incredible two-way sequence by Rudy Gobert:

-Rolls hard, met at the rim

-Finishes the putback

-Blocks the lob to Gordon

-Runs the floor to pave the way for Edwards

Late 4th. On the road. In Denver against the defending champs. This is clutch basketball for the Timberwolves. pic.twitter.com/R8C2fbMeN3

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) May 5, 2024

The reigning champs are on the ropes, but that's not the only key NBA story line coming out of the weekend. Here is one thought on each second-round series as the postseason rolls on toward its climax.

Can the Nuggets slow down Anthony Edwards?

Anthony Edwards scored 43 points in Denver on Saturday—his third straight outing of 36 or more, as the 22-year-old star continues his rapid ascension. Edwards wasn't alone on Saturday, as the other Wolves in his pack got going after Edwards scored 25 of the team's 40 first-half points. In the second half, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mike Conley, and Naz Reid combined to score 41 points on 17-for-19 (!) shooting.

But Edwards led the charge, and Denver's most urgent priority before Game 2 on Monday night is figuring out how to slow down the rampaging youngster. "There's no weaknesses in his game," Nuggets coach Mike Malone said after Game 1. "And it's going to be a hell of a challenge trying to slow him down."

The Nuggets' general strategy to corral Edwards looked the same in Game 1 as it did in this regular season and in the playoffs last year. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was the primary point-of-attack defender, while Gordon—the Nuggets' top option against bigger wings—only rarely guarded the Timberwolves' leading scorer.

Which Nuggets Guarded Anthony Edwards

(The "Everyone Else" category might seem larger than expected because the Nuggets try to match up KCP on Edwards whenever they can. But in the modern NBA, with switches and rotations and transition mismatches and substitution patterns, stars don't face just one primary defender on every possession. It's almost always a broader team effort.)

The concern for Denver, though, is that Edwards has developed into too smart a passer to double, yet simultaneously too strong and physical a one-on-one scorer for Caldwell-Pope to contain alone. In Game 1, Edwards was able to knock back KCP to create separation for turnaround jumpers whenever he wanted.

That move wouldn't come as easily against Gordon, who is three inches taller and some 30 pounds heavier than Caldwell-Pope. The obvious adjustment for Malone would be to stick Gordon on Edwards instead.

But Edwards is so skilled that a different defender might not be a panacea. In their infrequent battles this season, Edwards has used his agility and shiftiness to slither around the bigger Gordon.

Look at the fancy footwork on these buckets!

In Game 1, Edwards blew by Gordon for a layup in semi-transition.

And in the fourth quarter, he fooled Gordon with a double crossover to create space for an open jumper.

Shifting Gordon onto Edwards would yield further ripple effects. Michael Porter Jr.—enjoying an incredible postseason thus far—looms as a crucial component of that theoretical strategy, as he'd likely need to switch onto Towns if the Nuggets use Gordon to quench Edwards's flames. Porter should be able to handle that matchup; he's an underrated defender who, at 6-foot-10, doesn't give up much size to Towns. When Porter looks stiff on defense, it's often when he's matched up against quicker wings on the perimeter, and that isn't KAT's game.

But that would be Plan B for the Nuggets, who for so long now have succeeded by sticking to Plan A and dictating the matchups they want. Edwards might be the first to force Denver to adjust.

The Cavs need Evan Mobley to make a leap.

The Cleveland Cavaliers accomplished the bare minimum. It might have been uncomfortable, and it might have required a double-digit comeback in Game 7, but the Cavaliers did it: After tanking on the final day of the regular season and handpicking the Orlando Magic as its first-round opponent, Cleveland won a playoff series without LeBron James for the first time since 1993.

That first-in-three-decades achievement will probably be all the Cavaliers get in this postseason, though, because the top-seeded Boston Celtics await in the second round after dispatching the Jimmy Butler-less Heat with ease. Donovan Mitchell averaged 29 points per game against Orlando (including a combined 89 across Games 6 and 7) despite spotty 3-point shooting (25 percent in the series), but none of his teammates were as up to the task: Jarrett Allen, who missed the final three games with a rib injury, was the only other Cavalier to average more than 15 points per game.

That forced heliocentrism won't cut it against the Celtics, who can throw waves of elite perimeter defenders at Mitchell. Which means, once again, this will be an opportunity for Evan Mobley to make a leap.

It seems like the 2021 no. 3 pick has already experienced—and squandered—many such opportunities, even though he's only in his third season. But after entering the NBA with a tremendous two-way rookie season, Mobley has largely stalled in his development, especially on offense. Look no further than the just-concluded series against the Magic, as Mobley sank two 3-pointers in the opening minutes of Game 1—but finished the series just 3-for-11 from distance and didn't attempt a single 3-pointer over the final four games.

With Allen injured, Mobley was able to operate as the Cavaliers' lone big—an important barometer as Cleveland approaches a critical offseason. In that configuration, his lack of a jump shot wasn't as harmful to Cleveland's spacing, and his rim protection shone; Mobley tallied 12 blocks in the final three games of the series.

But Mobley will have his work cut out for him against Boston, even with the Celtics' smaller front line diminished by Kristaps Porzingis's calf injury. The Celtics pose a very different defensive challenge than the Magic. Orlando led the league in rim attempts this season, per Cleaning the Glass, while Boston ranked just 26th; conversely, Orlando ranked 30th in made 3-pointers, while Boston ranked first. Mobley might be able to stop layups—but Mitchell, Darius Garland, and the rest of the Cavaliers' mediocre perimeter corps probably won't be able to stop Boston's 3s.

How short-handed is too short-handed for the Knicks?

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Tom Thibodeau is playing his guys heavy minutes. Josh Hart leads the league with 46.4 minutes per game in this postseason; Jalen Brunson ranks third, at 43.8; and OG Anunoby is seventh, at 41.6.

It doesn't help that the Knicks survived an incredibly close series against the 76ers, with no blowouts and an overtime game mixed in. Already missing Julius Randle, the team's rotation shrank even more midway through the first round, when Bojan Bogdanovic underwent foot surgery. Thibodeau used only seven players in both Games 5 and 6; no other team has used so few players in any game yet this postseason.

Just how big of a problem is that workload for the Knicks, as they prepare to face the Pacers in the second round? Across all of their playoff games so far, the Knicks have devoted 94.5 percent of their minutes to their top seven players (the starters, plus Mitchell Robinson and Deuce McBride). Out of 400 playoff teams this century, that's the 13th-highest proportion. And all of the teams ahead of them played more than a decade ago, likely because a slower pace back then meant less per-minute exertion for players with more raw minutes played.

The most recent team with a shallower rotation than these Knicks was the 2014 Bulls, who devoted 95.8 percent of their minutes to seven players in a first-round defeat. Of course that team was coached by Thibodeau, too.

For greater context, the average 2024 playoff team has allocated 88 percent of its minutes to seven players, which is 6 percentage points shy of the Knicks' proportion. That doesn't sound like a major difference, but it amounts to about 15 extra minutes per game that Thibs is piling onto his core instead of spreading to role players like Precious Achiuwa or Alec Burks. Those extra minutes add up, and Thibodeau would do well to widen his rotation a bit against the fast-paced (pun intended) Pacers—at least early in the series, so he can explore whether this is the right matchup for an athlete like Achiuwa.

To Thibs's credit, however, the Knicks aren't complete anomalies in how much playing time they're concentrating in a small group. Just last year, a prominent playoff team thrived with a strong starting lineup and shallow bench. It helped that this team tended to win its series early, so its players could rest more between rounds and not rack up excessive minutes loads. But just by proportion of minutes played, the 2023-24 Knicks look a lot like the 2022-23 Nuggets, whose top-heavy minutes allocation for their five starters, Bruce Brown, and Jeff Green didn't stop them from winning the championship.

Playoff Minutes Concentrated in Top-Heavy Rosters

Percentages refer to the proportion of total team minutes given to that number of players. For instance, the top five 2023 Nuggets collected 75 percent of that team's total playoff minutes.

Everything in Mavericks-Thunder orients around Luka and SGA.

The second-round clash between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks doubles as a battle for the title of best point guard in the NBA. Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were the two guards named to the All-NBA First Team last season, and surely will be again this season; they rank second and fourth, respectively, on The Ringer's Top 100 Player Rankings, well ahead of any other guards.

Luka and SGA might not go mano a mano all that much in this series, because neither lead guard will be the other's primary defender. (I can't wait to watch Lu Dort harass Doncic over all 94 feet after he tormented Brandon Ingram in the first round; how quickly will Dort draw a Doncic technical foul when the latter complains about the lack of a whistle?) But after targeted switches or in transition, they'll invariably be drawn against one another on occasion—and then the fun and head-to-head duels will really begin.

Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander ranked first and second this season, respectively, in points per game off isolations, which leads to a natural question: Which will fare better at stopping the other, if left alone on a key possession?

On the one hand, Gilgeous-Alexander is an accomplished defender who tied for the league lead in steals this season. On the other, Luka is a stout isolation defender, despite occasional difficulties off the ball. Doncic allowed only 0.76 points per iso this season, which ranked 15th out of 109 players with at least 50 isos defended, according to Synergy data on NBA.com. Other, much more heralded defenders ended up in Luka's vicinity, including Jayson Tatum (0.73 points per iso), Mikal Bridges (0.74), Evan Mobley (0.75), Bam Adebayo (0.77), Dort (0.77), and Alex Caruso (0.78).

Another area to watch in this series—and another reason the two lead guards are such interesting foils—is the turnover battle. As I noted in a playoff preview last month, the Thunder forced the most turnovers in the league this season, per CtG, and committed the third fewest. That combination led to an extra 5.7 points per game off turnovers—by far the largest margin in the league. Plus-5.7 points off turnovers was more than the second- and third-best teams did combined.

And then Oklahoma City nearly doubled that already-best-in-the-league margin in the first round of the playoffs. In their sweep of New Orleans, the Thunder forced turnovers on 19 percent of the Pelicans' possessions, which led to 19.8 points off turnovers per game. Meanwhile, the Thunder allowed only 9.3 points off their own turnovers, producing, once again, the league's largest margin by far.

But as that graph shows, the second-greatest advantage in points off turnovers in the first round belonged to Dallas, which has always limited turnovers with Luka on the roster. The Mavericks have finished with a top-five lowest turnover rate in each of the past five seasons, per CtG. Limiting Oklahoma City's chances to get out in transition would give Dallas one of the boosts it needs to upset the West's top seed.