NHL 2024 Lottery Draft is tomorrow

Tankathon has the odds laid out in a nice and neat chart to shot the percent chances of each team picking where. Due to the convoluted NHL rules, only certain teams have a shot at the No. 1 pick, and the worst team in the league has more likely odds than not to only end up with the third overall pick (though better chances than any other individual teams to get the first or second selection).

The odds overwhelmingly like Pittsburgh to remain as they are in the 14th spot — which means the Pens would transfer this pick to San Jose to complete the Erik Karlsson trade.

There is a slight 3.2% chance that the Penguins will win the draft, but even "winning"

doesn't mean picking first in this case. Due to league rules, teams can only advance their draft position by 10 spots. That would mean that even in the unlikely event that fate smiles on the Pens, it doesn't smile fully on them since the NHL only awards them up to the fourth pick, surely keep it, and then San Jose would be destined to take Pittsburgh's 2025 first round pick instead.

3.2% isn't a very good chance, and in fact there's almost as big of a chance that Detroit or St. Louis will win and bump the Pens back to the 15th spot (which SJ still gets).

The other scenario worth watching for Pittsburgh in the draft is the conditions of the Jake Guentzel trade. I whipped up this little handy cheat sheat to show what happens based on the different scenarios. The Penguins' are locked into picking No. 46 overall with the team's own second round pick, but depending on how the Hurricanes do will dictate just where Pittsburgh picks.

Should Carolina lose to New York in this round or to the BOS/FLA winner in the Eastern Conference Final, the best pick the Pens get in the Guentzel trade will be 44th overall (a second rounder from CAR by way of Philadelphia).

If Carolina makes it to the Stanley Cup Final, but loses, a condition in the Guentzel trade upgrades the pick from 44 to 31.

If Carolina wins the whole dang thing, the Pens still get the Hurricanes' first round pick AND get the bonus of an extra fifth rounder this season to boot. It's not much, but worth keeping in mind as the playoffs continue to click along. The better Guentzel and the Hurricanes can do, the better it will be for the Pens.